IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·milei_shock_therapy_poverty_and_real_wage_effect

Milei shock therapy in Argentina from December 2023 produces poverty-rate increase and real-wage decline in its first two years (2024-2025) of magnitude consistent with the Marxist-Leninist critique of neoliberal restoration — distinct from the inflation-stabilisation and output-recovery questions handled by separate hypotheses.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/milei_shock_therapy_poverty_and_real_wage_effect

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['indec:eph_pobreza', 'indec:ripte']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether milei shock therapy break is actually linked to better or worse poverty headcount rate indec eph from 2023 to 2027.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['indec:eph_pobreza', 'indec:ripte']

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2023 to 2027, using a event study design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Milei shock therapy break
What we checked
  • Poverty headcount rate indec eph
  • Real wage index private formal
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/milei_shock_therapy_poverty_and_real_wage_effect
1007550250202320252027ARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty_headcount_rate_indec_eph across 1 sampled countries over 2023–2027.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for milei_shock_therapy_poverty_and_real_wage_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/milei_shock_therapy_poverty_and_real_wage_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:02:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Milei shock therapy in Argentina from December 2023 produces poverty-rate increase and real-wage decline in its first two years (2024-2025) of magnitude consistent with the Marxist-Leninist critique of neoliberal restoration — distinct from the inflation-stabilisation and output-recovery questions handled by separate hypotheses.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if Argentina's INDEC headline poverty rate exceeds the pre-Milei December 2023 baseline by at least 5 percentage points at any point during 2024-2025, AND if real private-formal-sector wages fall at least 10% below the December 2023 level over the same window. REFUTED if poverty rate trends flat or below baseline and real wages decline less than 3%.

formal test & threshold
test:      Argentina interrupted time-series (2020Q1-2025Q4) of INDEC EPH poverty headcount and IPC-deflated private-formal real wage on Milei-2023Q4 break; Newey-West SE. Refute if poverty <+5pp peak and real wage drop <3% across 2024-2025.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
year
Sample
1 countries · 2023 – 2027
Evidence type
associational

Single-country interrupted time-series for ARG with Milei-2023Q4 break as treatment. Newey-West HAC SEs. Outcomes: INDEC EPH headline poverty rate and IPC-deflated private-formal real-wage index. Pre-window 2020Q1-2023Q3, post-window 2024Q1-2025Q4 (extending where data become available). Caveat: INDEC measurement-break concerns under Milei add identification noise — flagged TODO swarm-6e for sensitivity using UCA-IIE alternative poverty series when registered.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty_headcount_rate_indec_eph
outcome
indec:eph_pobrezatier 2
level
real_wage_index_private_formal
outcome
indec:riptetier 2
log
milei_shock_therapy_break
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for ARG from 2023-12 (Milei inauguration).tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
cpi_inflation_yoy
control
indec_ipc:ipc_generaltier 2
yoy

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — milei_shock_therapy_poverty_and_real_wage_effect

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['indec:eph_pobreza', 'indec:ripte']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Milei shock therapy in Argentina from December 2023 produces poverty-rate increase and real-wage decline in its first two years (2024-2025) of magnitude consistent with the Marxist-Leninist critique of neoliberal restoration — distinct from the inflation-stabilisation and output-recovery questions handled by separate hypotheses.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if Argentina's INDEC headline poverty rate exceeds the pre-Milei December 2023 baseline by at least 5 percentage points at any point during 2024-2025, AND if real private-formal-sector wages fall at least 10% below the December 2023 level over the same window. REFUTED if poverty rate trends flat or below baseline and real wages decline less than 3%.
  • Falsification test: Argentina interrupted time-series (2020Q1-2025Q4) of INDEC EPH poverty headcount and IPC-deflated private-formal real wage on Milei-2023Q4 break; Newey-West SE. Refute if poverty <+5pp peak and real wage drop <3% across 2024-2025.
  • Event year: (not extracted)

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['indec:eph_pobreza', 'indec:ripte']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for ARG from 2023-12 (Milei inauguration). → milei_shock_therapy_break (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=5)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)

Variables missing data

  • indec:eph_pobreza (outcome, name=poverty_headcount_rate_indec_eph)
  • indec:ripte (outcome, name=real_wage_index_private_formal)
  • indec_ipc:ipc_general (controls, name=cpi_inflation_yoy)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-04T13:02:34+00:00

Notes

Maps the marxist-leninist school's distributional critique of Milei shock therapy (poverty + real-wage in 2024-2025) to a single-country interrupted time series. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.