IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·mittelstand_institutional_productivity_effect

German Mittelstand-supporting institutional architecture (vocational training, Landesbanken patient capital, co-determination) correlates with higher manufacturing productivity persistence than Anglo-Saxon shareholder-primacy arrangements in capital-intensive sectors.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/mittelstand_institutional_productivity_effect

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'mittelstand_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'mittelstand_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 1970 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Mittelstand indicator
What we checked
  • Productivity index
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/mittelstand_institutional_productivity_effect
1007550250197019952019DEUUSAGBRFRAITANLDAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_index across 10 sampled countries over 1970–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for mittelstand_institutional_productivity_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/mittelstand_institutional_productivity_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Ordoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:57Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

German Mittelstand-supporting institutional architecture (vocational training, Landesbanken patient capital, co-determination) correlates with higher manufacturing productivity persistence than Anglo-Saxon shareholder-primacy arrangements in capital-intensive sectors.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE of manufacturing TFP on Mittelstand indicator, advanced-economy panel 1970-2019, country and year FE; falsified if Mittelstand coefficient not positive at p<0.10 or magnitude below 5%.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
10 countries · 1970 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel comparing German manufacturing-productivity persistence to Anglo-Saxon peers (USA, GBR) 1950-2023. Treatment coding: Mittelstand-supporting institutions (vocational training intensity, patient-capital share, co-determination). Outcome: manufacturing TFP and survival of medium-sized firms.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
mittelstand_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for DEU, AUT, CHE (Germanic Mittelstand model); 0 for Anglo USA/GBR baselinetier 5
indicator
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — mittelstand_institutional_productivity_effect

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'mittelstand_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: German Mittelstand-supporting institutional architecture (vocational training, Landesbanken patient capital, co-determination) correlates with higher manufacturing productivity persistence than Anglo-Saxon shareholder-primacy arrangements in capital-intensive sectors.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE of manufacturing TFP on Mittelstand indicator, advanced-economy panel 1970-2019, country and year FE; falsified if Mittelstand coefficient not positive at p<0.10 or magnitude below 5%.

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'mittelstand_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for DEU, AUT, CHE (Germanic Mittelstand model); 0 for Anglo USA/GBR baseline → mittelstand_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=500)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:57+00:00

Notes

Seeded from an Ordoliberal claim that German Mittelstand-supporting institutions (vocational training, Landesbanken patient capital, co-determination) deliver higher manufacturing-productivity persistence than Anglo-Saxon shareholder-primacy arrangements. Cross-country panel; human review needed for the Mittelstand-treatment indicator coding.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.