Pre-registration
Mitterrand 1981-1983 nationalisations of banking and industry did not produce the predicted efficiency collapse in the nationalised firms relative to private peers during their nationalised years, though macro outcomes were affected by FX pressure.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Primary v2 local diagnostic is a PWT macro-productivity proxy, not the full firm-level Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD. It compares France's 1981-1986 TFP and output-per-worker growth with the Belgium/Germany/Spain/UK/Italy/Netherlands peer median. The no-efficiency-collapse claim is partially supported if France is no more than 5 percentage points below the peer median on both TFP and output-per-worker growth. It is refuted if France is at least 10 percentage points below the peer median on either metric. Otherwise it is partial/mixed. Full support requires firm-level nationalised-vs-private peer data.
formal test & threshold
test: pwt_france_macro_productivity_vs_western_europe_peers_1981_1986
Method
- Template
did_callaway_santanna- Clustering
firm- Sample
- 1 countries · 1978 – 1986
- Evidence type
- associational
Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Difference-in-differences (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered) on French firms 1978-1986: nationalised-in -1981/82 firms vs matched private peers, outcomes are TFP, value-added per worker, and unit labour cost. Macro FX-pressure controls included. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
total_factor_productivity outcome | eu_klems:tfp_industrytier 3 | log_level |
value_added_per_worker outcome | eu_klems:value_added_per_workertier 3 | log_level |
unit_labour_cost outcome | eu_klems:unit_labour_costtier 3 oecd:ULCEEQ01tier 2 | log_level |
nationalised_firm_indicator treatment | constructed:binary = 1 for the 1981-82 nationalised firms (Saint-Gobain, Pechiney, Rhône-Poulenc, Thomson, CGE, BNP, CL, SG, Suez, Ptier 5 | binary |
nationalisation_event treatment | constructed:event date = 1982-02-13 (Loi de nationalisation); secondary 1981-09 (announcement)tier 5 | event_date |
industry_fixed_effects control | constructed:2-digit NACE industry dummiestier 5 | categorical |
real_franc_eer control | bis:WS_EERtier 2 | log_diff |
macro_real_gdp_growth_fra control | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2 | pct_change_yoy |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card - mitterrand_nationalised_firm_efficiency
Verdict: PARTIAL - FRA TFP growth 7.7% vs peer median 4.3% (gap 3.4pp); output/worker 0.8% vs 1.9% (gap -1.1pp), 1981-1986
Predeclared Test
The v2 diagnostic compares France's 1981-1986 PWT TFP and output-per-worker growth with the Belgium/Germany/Spain/UK/Italy/Netherlands peer median. It supports only the macro no-collapse pattern if France is no more than 5 percentage points below the peer median on both metrics.
Scope Note
This cannot identify firm-level treatment effects for the 1981-82 nationalised firms. Full support requires the firm-level nationalised-vs-private peer panel specified in the original design.
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from market-socialist framing of the Mitterrand 1981-83 nationalisations as not producing the predicted firm-level efficiency collapse. Human review required before promotion.