Pre-registration
Mondragón cooperative network (Spain, 1956-present) has sustained productivity and employment stability through successive recessions at levels comparable to Basque private-sector peers.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
formal test & threshold
test: Multi-metric checklist for Mondragón vs Basque private-sector peers 1970-2023 across employment retention through 1992/2008/2020 recessions, productivity, and survival rates; falsified if Mondragón underperforms peers on 2 of 3 metrics.
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 1970 – 2023
- Evidence type
- canonical_case_multi_metric
Single-network canonical case (Mondragón cooperative network 1956-2023). Pattern-match across productivity, employment stability across recessions (1973, 1992, 2008, 2020), survival rates, and wage compression vs Basque private-sector matched peers. Tests cooperative-form resilience claim.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
unemployment_rate outcome | world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2 | level |
log_gdp_pc_ppp outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2 | log |
regional_unemployment_basque outcome | ine:tasa_paro_pais_vascotier 2 | level |
tfp_index outcome | pwt:rtfpnatier 3 | level |
mondragon_proxy treatment | manual:mondragon_employment_count_annualtier 4 | log |
log_population control | world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2 | log |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — mondragon_cooperative_resilience
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
Reason: falsification rule not sharpened — runner refuses to grade against generic stub boilerplate
Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 0 of 0 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 0 met (impossible to hit support).
Counts: 0 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL
Primary country: ESP
Metric-by-metric
| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---|
Claim
Mondragón cooperative network (Spain, 1956-present) has sustained productivity and employment stability through successive recessions at levels comparable to Basque private-sector peers.
Interpretation
Verdict is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — 0 metric(s) cannot be evaluated because the underlying data source is not yet in the vintages pipeline, and 0 metric(s) have data but a threshold expression the auto-evaluator does not recognise (complex conditions, discrete event counts, cross-country gaps). Close these gaps then re-run.
Steelman live concerns
See `` for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.
Provenance
Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.
Notes
Seeded from a market-socialist claim that the Mondragón cooperative network has sustained productivity and employment stability through successive recessions at levels comparable to Basque private-sector peers. Single- network canonical case; human review needed for the matched-peer construction.