Pre-registration
Large US mortgage-rate increases are followed by materially weaker housing starts within one year, consistent with interest-rate-sensitive residential construction labour demand.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Identify non-overlapping monthly episodes where the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises at least +150bp over the previous 12 months. For each completed episode, compare housing starts 12 months later with the episode month. SUPPORTED if at least 60% of completed episodes have starts down at least 15% and the median 12-month starts change is <= -15%. REFUTED if fewer than 40% pass or the median starts change is positive. PARTIAL otherwise.
formal test & threshold
test: fred_mortgage_rate_shock_housing_starts_12m threshold: SUPPORTED: pass rate >= 60% and median 12m starts change <= -15%; REFUTED: pass rate < 40% or median starts change > 0%.
Method
- Template
event_study- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 1971 – 2026
- Evidence type
- associational
Non-overlapping shock windows with 12-month forward change in seasonally adjusted annualized housing starts.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
housing_starts outcome | fred:HOUSTtier 1 | 12-month log change after shock |
thirty_year_mortgage_rate treatment | fred:MORTGAGE30UStier 1 | monthly average; 12-month change in basis points |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card - mortgage_rate_shock_housing_starts_us_1971_2026
Verdict: refuted - 3/8 episodes pass; median 12m starts change -8.4%
Episode Table
| Month | 12m mortgage-rate change bp | 12m housing-starts change | Pass | |---|---:|---:|:---:| | 1979-09-01 | 154 | -21.9% | yes | | 1980-09-01 | 190 | -47.9% | yes | | 1981-09-01 | 496 | 22.8% | no | | 1984-06-01 | 155 | -9.5% | no | | 1994-09-01 | 173 | -7.4% | no | | 2000-02-01 | 152 | -6.7% | no | | 2022-04-01 | 192 | -29.6% | yes | | 2023-08-01 | 185 | 5.5% | no |
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Placed under labour because the mechanism is residential construction activity and labour demand; the treatment is monetary/credit-market transmission through mortgage rates.