IESET.
Hypotheses·resource rents·norway_gpfg_resource_curse_avoidance

Norway's post-1990 GPFG resource-rent architecture outperformed a hydrocarbon-dependent donor pool on real GDP per capita, consistent with the claim that collective ownership of resource rents plus market-based management can avoid resource-curse growth outcomes.

PARTIALengine/runs/norway_gpfg_resource_curse_avoidance

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.931, |gap|/pre_sd=1.5e+02, p_perm=0.125 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether norway gpfg indicator is actually linked to better or worse log real income per capita from 1985 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+2.931, |gap|/pre_sd=1.5e+02, p_perm=0.125 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because resource rents claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1985 to 2023, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Norway gpfg indicator
  • Oil rent share income
What we checked
  • Log real income per capita
  • Institutional quality wgi
  • Institutional quality vdem
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/norway_gpfg_resource_curse_avoidance
1007550250198520042023NORRUSVENSAUNGAAGODZA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_real_gdp_per_capita across 11 sampled countries over 1985–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for norway_gpfg_resource_curse_avoidance. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/norway_gpfg_resource_curse_avoidance/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Market Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T18:07:17Z

Norway's post-1990 GPFG resource-rent architecture outperformed a hydrocarbon-dependent donor pool on real GDP per capita, consistent with the claim that collective ownership of resource rents plus market-based management can avoid resource-curse growth outcomes.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY: SUPPORTED if synthetic-control / synth-DiD estimates a positive mean post-1990 Norway gap in log real GDP per capita versus the donor pool, the absolute mean gap exceeds 0.5 times the pre-period Norway standard deviation, and the placebo permutation p-value is below 0.10. REFUTED if the corresponding gap is negative, large by the same rule, and p < 0.10. PARTIAL otherwise. METHOD_VALID: at least four pre-1990 observations and at least two donor countries with overlapping pre/post outcome data.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic control of Norway 1990-2023 vs hydrocarbon-dependent donor pool (RUS, VEN, SAU, NGA, AGO, DZA, KAZ, AZE, ECU, GAB); primary threshold is positive log-GDP-per-capita gap >0.5x pre-period SD with placebo p<0.10.
threshold: PRIMARY: mean_post_gap(log_real_gdp_per_capita) > 0, |gap| > 0.5*pre_sd, placebo_p < 0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1985 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-DiD with NOR as treated unit and hydrocarbon-dependent donor pool (RUS, VEN, SAU, NGA, AGO, DZA, KAZ, AZE, ECU, GAB). Pre-treatment fit window 1985-1989; post-treatment 1990-2023. Outcomes: log real GDP per capita, institutional quality (WGI/V-Dem). Caveat: pre-existing Norwegian institutional quality (1990 baseline already strong) means treatment effect on institutions is likely small; growth-path divergence is the cleaner test.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
institutional_quality_wgi
outcome
wgi:GovernmentEffectivenesstier 4
level
institutional_quality_vdem
outcome
vdem:v2x_polyarchytier 4
level
log_tfp_pwt
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
norway_gpfg_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for NOR years >= 1990 (GPFG / Oljefondet inception). Donor pool = hydrocarbon-dependent peers (RUS, VEN, Stier 5
indicator
oil_rent_share_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita_initial
control
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
log
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — norway_gpfg_resource_curse_avoidance

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.931, |gap|/pre_sd=1.5e+02, p_perm=0.125 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Norway's post-1990 GPFG resource-rent architecture outperformed a hydrocarbon-dependent donor pool on real GDP per capita, consistent with the claim that collective ownership of resource rents plus market-based management can avoid resource-curse growth outcomes.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY: SUPPORTED if synthetic-control / synth-DiD estimates a positive mean post-1990 Norway gap in log real GDP per capita versus the donor pool, the absolute mean gap exceeds 0.5 times the pre-period Norway standard deviation, and the placebo permutation p-value is below 0.10. REFUTED if the corresponding gap is negative, large by the same rule, and p < 0.10. PARTIAL otherwise. METHOD_VALID: at least four pre-1990 observations and at least two donor countries with overlapping pre/post outcome data.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: NOR
  • event_year: 1990
  • n_donors: 7
  • donor_weights (top): {'ECU': 0.5092, 'AGO': 0.4908, 'VEN': 0.0, 'SAU': 0.0, 'NGA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 2.6724224766278883
  • pre_period_sd: 0.019956624017818052
  • mean_post_gap: 2.9310650552043143
  • end_period_gap: 2.932672886356551
  • post_period_years: [1990, 2023]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.125
  • n_placebos: 7
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, n=14066)
  • wgi:GovernmentEffectiveness → institutional_quality_wgi (outcome, n=5168)
  • pwt:rtfpna → log_tfp_pwt (outcome, n=6412)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for NOR years >= 1990 (GPFG / Oljefondet inception). Donor pool = hydrocarbon-dependent peers (RUS, VEN, SAU, NGA, etc.). → norway_gpfg_indicator (treatment, n=429)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS → oil_rent_share_gdp (treatment, n=10619)
  • maddison:rgdpnapc → log_gdp_per_capita_initial (controls, n=19706)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, n=407)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T18:07:17+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from market-socialist framing of GPFG as collective-ownership-plus-market-management resource-curse avoidance. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.