IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel

Across OECD country-years, disposable-income poverty rates are materially lower than market-income poverty rates at the 50 percent median-income line.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1975 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Redistribution system
What we checked
  • Poverty reduction
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

2 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel
1007550250197520002024AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCRI
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty_reduction across 37 sampled countries over 1975–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Across OECD country-years, disposable-income poverty rates are materially lower than market-income poverty rates at the 50 percent median-income line.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if mean market-minus-disposable poverty reduction is >= 5 percentage points and at least 85 percent of country-years are positive, with at least 300 observations and 25 countries.

formal test & threshold
test:      oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
descriptive
Fixed effects
Sample
37 countries · 1975 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Generated Worker C first-tranche local-data panel verdict.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty_reduction
outcome
local pinned vintage panelSupported if mean market-minus-disposable poverty reduction is >= 5 percentage points and at least 85 percent of country-years are positive, with at least 300 observations and 25 countries.
redistribution_system
treatment
local pinned vintage panelas predeclared in threshold

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

OECD taxes and transfers reduce relative poverty

Verdict: supported - mean magnitude and positive-share gates both clear.

Predeclared Test

Supported if mean market-minus-disposable poverty reduction is >= 5 percentage points and at least 85 percent of country-years are positive, with at least 300 observations and 25 countries.

Results

  • Usable panel: 712 observations, 37 countries.
  • Mean panel contrast: 16.877; positive share: 1.000.

Caveats

This is a compact local-data panel verdict. It is useful as a falsifiable first tranche, but it should not be read as a structural causal design without stronger identification.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Runnable via engine/runs/oecd_public_transfers_poverty_reduction_panel/replication.py. Uses only pinned local BIS/OECD/WGI/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.