IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel

Open economies are more compatible with large public welfare states: social-spending employment penalties are smaller where trade exposure is high.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether socx x trade open is actually linked to better or worse employment rate from 1991 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1991 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Socx x trade open
What we checked
  • Employment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel
1007550250199120082024AUSAUTBELBGRCANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_rate across 42 sampled countries over 1991–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:53Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Open economies are more compatible with large public welfare states: social-spending employment penalties are smaller where trade exposure is high.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `socx_x_trade_open` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel
threshold: {"coef_min": 0.002, "min_observations": 350, "min_units": 20, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_min": 0.2}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1991 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_rate
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
socx_x_trade_open
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
socx_public_gdp
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth
trade_open_gdp
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth
gdp_growth
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Open economies are more compatible with large public welfare states: social-spending employment penalties are smaller where trade exposure is high.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if socx_x_trade_open clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=employment_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=socx_x_trade_open) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=socx_public_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=trade_open_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=gdp_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:53+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/oecd_socx_open_economy_welfare_compatibility_panel/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.