IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel

In OECD country-years from 1990 to 2022, higher trade-union density is associated with lower disposable-income Gini after country and year fixed effects and unemployment controls.

PARTIALengine/runs/oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel

PARTIAL — coef=+2.787e+04, p=0.0962; claim direction not auto-inferred

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+2.787e+04, p=0.0962; claim direction not auto-inferred

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 1990 to 2022, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Union density
What we checked
  • Inequality disp
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel
1007550250199020062022AUSAUTBELCANCHLCOLCRI
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_disp across 38 sampled countries over 1990–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:57Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In OECD country-years from 1990 to 2022, higher trade-union density is associated with lower disposable-income Gini after country and year fixed effects and unemployment controls.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff beta_union_density <= -0.0005 Gini points per 1 pp union density with p<0.10. REFUTED iff beta_union_density >= +0.0005 with p<0.10. PARTIAL otherwise if method-valid.

formal test & threshold
test:      oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel_twfe_1990_2022
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
38 countries · 1990 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

OLS with country and year fixed effects, clustered by country. This is an associational institutional panel, not a causal natural experiment.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_disp
outcome
oecd:OECD.WISE.INE_DSD_IDD_DF_IDD_1.0tier 2
level
union_density
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE_DSD_TUD_CBC_DF_TUD_1.0tier 2
level
unemployment_rate
control
oecd:DSD_LFS_DF_LFS_INDICtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+2.787e+04, p=0.0962; claim direction not auto-inferred

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In OECD country-years from 1990 to 2022, higher trade-union density is associated with lower disposable-income Gini after country and year fixed effects and unemployment controls.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED iff beta_union_density <= -0.0005 Gini points per 1 pp union density with p<0.10. REFUTED iff beta_union_density >= +0.0005 with p<0.10. PARTIAL otherwise if method-valid.
  • Falsification test: oecd_union_density_disposable_gini_panel_twfe_1990_2022

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +2.787e+04
  • Std error: 1.673e+04
  • p-value: 0.0962
  • Observations: 674, countries: 37
  • Within R²: -0.0852
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.WISE.INE_DSD_IDD_DF_IDD_1.0 → gini_disp (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=902)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE_DSD_TUD_CBC_DF_TUD_1.0 → union_density (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1825)
  • oecd:DSD_LFS_DF_LFS_INDIC → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=oecd, n=2255)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:57+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated as Worker D OECD labour/distribution wave using only pinned OECD vintages already on disk.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.