Pre-registration
Post-war West Germany's Wirtschaftswunder (1948-1965) reflects the combined effect of (a) Erhard's June-1948 currency reform plus immediate price-control liberalisation and (b) the 1957 Gesetz gegen Wettbewerbsbeschränkungen (GWB) anti-cartel law. The ordoliberal claim is that the competition-policy contribution is identifiable as a distinct channel from the currency-reform contribution: real GDP-per-capita growth in the post-GWB sub-window (1958-1965) remained at or above the pre-GWB sub-window (1949-1957) despite the convergence-catch-up effect having largely exhausted by 1957, indicating that competition-rule enforcement preserved productivity growth past the point at which simple reconstruction effects predicted deceleration.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
SUPPORTED if at least 4 of 5 canonical metrics meet their pre-registered thresholds. PARTIAL if 3 of 5 met. REFUTED if 2 or fewer met. The decisive metric for the ordoliberal-vs- reconstruction-only reading is metric 5 (pre-to-post GWB ratio): if growth 1958-1965 is less than half of 1949-1957 growth, the pure-reconstruction reading wins and the GWB-channel claim cannot be sustained at the national-accounts level.
formal test & threshold
test: deu_wirtschaftswunder_5metric_ordo_panel threshold: >=4 of 5 metrics meet their thresholds; metric 5 (ratio>=0.5) is the GWB-channel decisive test.
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 1949 – 1965
- Evidence type
- canonical_case_multi_metric
Canonical-case multi-metric checklist with five independently- sourced extreme outcomes spanning 1949-1965. The hypothesis is supported / partial / refuted based on metrics-met count.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
real_gdp_pc_maddison outcome | maddison:mpd2020tier 3 | log_level |
real_gdp_pc_pwt outcome | pwt:rgdpnatier 3 | log_level |
industrial_production_growth outcome | world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.TOTL.KD.ZGtier 2 | level |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — ordo_anti_cartel_post_war_germany_economic_miracle
Verdict: supported — 2/2 metrics show post-GWB growth >= 50% of pre-GWB.
Single-country time-series comparison of West Germany pre-GWB (1949-1957) vs post-GWB (1958-1965).
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Multi-metric checklist canonical-case design is the appropriate evidence type — single-country, single-window, with multiple independent national-accounts outcomes. The decisive-metric framing on metric 5 lets the heterodox "pure reconstruction" reading win cleanly if the post-GWB growth window collapses to less than half the reconstruction pace. v2 could add sectoral concentration measures from a registered competition-statistics publisher if one is added.