IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023

Countries with very large renewable-electricity gains should also show visible economy-wide energy transition: among countries where renewable electricity share rose by at least 20 percentage points from 2000 to 2023, at least 80% should increase renewables' share of total energy by at least 5 percentage points, and the median total-energy renewable-share gain should be at least 8 percentage points.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether renewable electricity share is actually linked to better or worse renewable share total energy from 2000 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 18 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Renewable electricity share
What we checked
  • Renewable share total energy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023
1007550250200020122023AUSBELCYPDEUDNKESPEST
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show renewable_share_total_energy across 18 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Countries with very large renewable-electricity gains should also show visible economy-wide energy transition: among countries where renewable electricity share rose by at least 20 percentage points from 2000 to 2023, at least 80% should increase renewables' share of total energy by at least 5 percentage points, and the median total-energy renewable-share gain should be at least 8 percentage points.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 80% of selected countries have total-energy renewable-share gains >= 5pp and the median total-energy gain is >= 8pp. REFUTED if fewer than 60% pass or the median total-energy gain is below 3pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      electric_renewables_total_energy_endpoint_followthrough
threshold: n >= 15 AND pass_rate >= 0.80 AND median_total_renewable_energy_change_pp >= 8

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
18 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom OWID endpoint-panel replication using local vintages on disk. Countries are selected by the predeclared treatment-threshold rule, then graded against endpoint change thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
renewable_share_total_energy
outcome
owid:renewable-share-energytier 2
endpoint percentage-point change
renewable_electricity_share
treatment
owid:share-electricity-renewablestier 2
countries selected if endpoint increase >= 20pp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023

Verdict: supported - 18 of 18 electricity-renewables-growth countries passed; median total energy renewable-share change 14.9pp

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if at least 80% of selected countries have total-energy renewable-share gains >= 5pp and the median total-energy gain is >= 8pp. REFUTED if fewer than 60% pass or the median total-energy gain is below 3pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 15 AND pass_rate >= 0.80 AND median_total_renewable_energy_change_pp >= 8

Metrics

  • n_countries: 18
  • pass_rate: 1.0
  • median_total_renewable_energy_change_pp: 14.852703774999998

Country Endpoints

| country_iso3 | country_name | start_year | end_year | renewable_electricity_change_pp | total_renewable_energy_change_pp | pass | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AUS | Australia | 2000 | 2023 | 26.72 | 10.56 | yes | | BEL | Belgium | 2000 | 2023 | 32.17 | 11.73 | yes | | CYP | Cyprus | 2000 | 2023 | 20.45 | 9.27 | yes | | DEU | Germany | 2000 | 2023 | 48.46 | 20.86 | yes | | DNK | Denmark | 2000 | 2023 | 70.86 | 34.18 | yes | | ESP | Spain | 2000 | 2023 | 35.90 | 18.22 | yes | | EST | Estonia | 2000 | 2023 | 48.66 | 13.97 | yes | | GBR | United Kingdom | 2000 | 2023 | 43.75 | 18.89 | yes | | GRC | Greece | 2000 | 2023 | 42.01 | 17.66 | yes | | HUN | Hungary | 2000 | 2023 | 25.71 | 10.64 | yes | | IRL | Ireland | 2000 | 2023 | 40.23 | 19.90 | yes | | ITA | Italy | 2000 | 2023 | 25.70 | 12.00 | yes | | LTU | Lithuania | 2000 | 2023 | 80.72 | 17.51 | yes | | LUX | Luxembourg | 2000 | 2023 | 49.36 | 11.28 | yes | | NLD | Netherlands | 2000 | 2023 | 44.01 | 15.73 | yes | | POL | Poland | 2000 | 2023 | 26.08 | 11.11 | yes | | PRT | Portugal | 2000 | 2023 | 44.68 | 22.26 | yes | | ROU | Romania | 2000 | 2023 | 21.13 | 11.07 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive endpoint-panel test using local OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern only; it does not identify a policy-level causal effect.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.