IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel

Larger fossil-fuel consumption subsidies predict weaker high-tech export upgrading.

The channel is that subsidy-heavy energy systems preserve incumbent production structures and reduce incentives to move into more technology-intensive export baskets.

PARTIALengine/runs/owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel

PARTIAL — coef=+0.03032, p=0.224 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fossil subsidies is actually linked to better or worse high tech exports from 2010 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.03032, p=0.224 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 21 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fossil subsidies
What we checked
  • High tech exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel
1007550250201020172023ARGAUTCHNCOLEGYFRAGBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports across 21 sampled countries over 2010–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Larger fossil-fuel consumption subsidies predict weaker high-tech export upgrading. The channel is that subsidy-heavy energy systems preserve incumbent production structures and reduce incentives to move into more technology-intensive export baskets.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if fossil_subsidies is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 150 observations and 15 countries. REFUTED if fossil_subsidies is positive at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
21 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE screen over the 2010-2023 OWID/IEA fossil-subsidy window.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports
outcome
wits:high_tech_exportstier 2
log
fossil_subsidies
treatment
owid:consumption-subsidies-for-fossil-fuelstier 2
log
tariff_average
control
wits:tariff_averagetier 2
level
export_scale
control
wits:export_value_constant_usdtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.03032, p=0.224 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Larger fossil-fuel consumption subsidies predict weaker high-tech export upgrading. The channel is that subsidy-heavy energy systems preserve incumbent production structures and reduce incentives to move into more technology-intensive export baskets.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if fossil_subsidies is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 150 observations and 15 countries. REFUTED if fossil_subsidies is positive at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_owid_fossil_subsidy_hightech_export_drag_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.03032
  • Std error: 0.02484
  • p-value: 0.224
  • Observations: 169, countries: 21
  • Within R²: 0.145
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • wits:high_tech_exports → high_tech_exports (outcome, publisher=wits, n=3185)
  • owid:consumption-subsidies-for-fossil-fuels → fossil_subsidies (treatment, publisher=owid, n=686)
  • wits:tariff_average → tariff_average (controls, publisher=wits, n=3806)
  • wits:export_value_constant_usd → export_scale (controls, publisher=wits, n=14446)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This converts today's OWID/IEA mirror acquisition into a directly testable cross-country upgrading hypothesis while direct IEA access remains gated.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.