IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·owid_g20_co2_intensity_decline_1990_2022

Most large economies should show substantial carbon-intensity improvement since 1990: among the 19 country-level G20 economies with local OWID coverage, at least 75% should reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by at least 25% by 2022, and the median decline should be at least 35%.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/owid_g20_co2_intensity_decline_1990_2022

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether g20 country panel is actually linked to better or worse co2 intensity from 1990 to 2022.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 19 country or place units from 1990 to 2022, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • G20 country panel
What we checked
  • Co2 intensity
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_g20_co2_intensity_decline_1990_2022
1007550250199020062022ARGAUSBRACANCHNDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show co2_intensity across 19 sampled countries over 1990–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_g20_co2_intensity_decline_1990_2022. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_g20_co2_intensity_decline_1990_2022/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit c86e9cf · 2026-05-02T16:36:30Z

Most large economies should show substantial carbon-intensity improvement since 1990: among the 19 country-level G20 economies with local OWID coverage, at least 75% should reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by at least 25% by 2022, and the median decline should be at least 35%.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 75% of the G20 country panel reduces CO2 intensity by >=25% and the median decline is >=35%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median decline is less than 15%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      g20_co2_intensity_endpoint_percent_change
threshold: n >= 18 AND pass_rate >= 0.75 AND median_co2_intensity_pct_change <= -35

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
19 countries · 1990 – 2022
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom OWID endpoint-panel replication using local vintages on disk. Countries are selected by the predeclared treatment-threshold rule, then graded against endpoint change thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
co2_intensity
outcome
owid:co2-intensitytier 2
endpoint percent change
g20_country_panel
treatment
fixed country list19 country-level G20 economies

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - owid_g20_co2_intensity_decline_1990_2022

Verdict: supported - 16 of 19 G20 economies passed; median CO2 intensity change -43.2%

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if at least 75% of the G20 country panel reduces CO2 intensity by >=25% and the median decline is >=35%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median decline is less than 15%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 18 AND pass_rate >= 0.75 AND median_co2_intensity_pct_change <= -35

Metrics

  • n_countries: 19
  • pass_rate: 0.8421052631578947
  • median_co2_intensity_pct_change: -43.24565188179379

Country Endpoints

| country_iso3 | country_name | start_year | end_year | co2_intensity_pct_change | pass | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | ARG | Argentina | 1990 | 2022 | -35.09 | yes | | AUS | Australia | 1990 | 2022 | -52.31 | yes | | BRA | Brazil | 1990 | 2022 | -18.34 | no | | CAN | Canada | 1990 | 2022 | -43.25 | yes | | CHN | China | 1990 | 2022 | -40.80 | yes | | DEU | Germany | 1990 | 2022 | -67.36 | yes | | FRA | France | 1990 | 2022 | -54.20 | yes | | GBR | United Kingdom | 1990 | 2022 | -70.24 | yes | | IDN | Indonesia | 1990 | 2022 | 0.40 | no | | IND | India | 1990 | 2022 | -18.13 | no | | ITA | Italy | 1990 | 2022 | -46.39 | yes | | JPN | Japan | 1990 | 2022 | -30.91 | yes | | KOR | South Korea | 1990 | 2022 | -32.59 | yes | | MEX | Mexico | 1990 | 2022 | -41.97 | yes | | RUS | Russia | 1990 | 2022 | -67.52 | yes | | SAU | Saudi Arabia | 1990 | 2022 | -53.73 | yes | | TUR | Turkey | 1990 | 2022 | -41.45 | yes | | USA | United States | 1990 | 2022 | -53.25 | yes | | ZAF | South Africa | 1990 | 2022 | -55.47 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive endpoint-panel test using local OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern only; it does not identify a policy-level causal effect.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.