IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·owid_high_income_co2_per_capita_decline_2005_2023

Among a fixed panel of 20 high-income economies, per-capita CO2 emissions should mostly fall after the mid-2000s energy-transition inflection: at least 75% should reduce per-capita CO2 by at least 15% from 2005 to 2023, and the median reduction should be at least 25%.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/owid_high_income_co2_per_capita_decline_2005_2023

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 2005 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • High income country panel
What we checked
  • Co2 emissions per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_high_income_co2_per_capita_decline_2005_2023
1007550250200520142023AUSAUTBELCANCHEDEUDNK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show co2_emissions_per_capita across 20 sampled countries over 2005–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_high_income_co2_per_capita_decline_2005_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_high_income_co2_per_capita_decline_2005_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Among a fixed panel of 20 high-income economies, per-capita CO2 emissions should mostly fall after the mid-2000s energy-transition inflection: at least 75% should reduce per-capita CO2 by at least 15% from 2005 to 2023, and the median reduction should be at least 25%.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 75% of the high-income panel reduces per-capita CO2 by >=15% and the median decline is >=25%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or median decline is less than 10%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      high_income_co2_per_capita_endpoint_percent_change
threshold: n >= 18 AND pass_rate >= 0.75 AND median_co2_per_capita_pct_change <= -25

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
20 countries · 2005 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom OWID endpoint-panel replication using local vintages on disk. Countries are selected by the predeclared treatment-threshold rule, then graded against endpoint change thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
co2_emissions_per_capita
outcome
owid:co2-emissions-per-capitatier 2
endpoint percent change
high_income_country_panel
treatment
fixed country list20 high-income economies

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - owid_high_income_co2_per_capita_decline_2005_2023

Verdict: supported - 19 of 20 high-income economies passed; median per-capita CO2 change -39.2%

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if at least 75% of the high-income panel reduces per-capita CO2 by >=15% and the median decline is >=25%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or median decline is less than 10%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 18 AND pass_rate >= 0.75 AND median_co2_per_capita_pct_change <= -25

Metrics

  • n_countries: 20
  • pass_rate: 0.95
  • median_co2_per_capita_pct_change: -39.21568926139226

Country Endpoints

| country_iso3 | country_name | start_year | end_year | co2_per_capita_pct_change | pass | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | AUS | Australia | 2005 | 2023 | -23.43 | yes | | AUT | Austria | 2005 | 2023 | -35.15 | yes | | BEL | Belgium | 2005 | 2023 | -39.69 | yes | | CAN | Canada | 2005 | 2023 | -21.06 | yes | | CHE | Switzerland | 2005 | 2023 | -41.47 | yes | | DEU | Germany | 2005 | 2023 | -33.61 | yes | | DNK | Denmark | 2005 | 2023 | -49.03 | yes | | ESP | Spain | 2005 | 2023 | -46.20 | yes | | FIN | Finland | 2005 | 2023 | -47.81 | yes | | FRA | France | 2005 | 2023 | -39.79 | yes | | GBR | United Kingdom | 2005 | 2023 | -52.38 | yes | | IRL | Ireland | 2005 | 2023 | -44.26 | yes | | ITA | Italy | 2005 | 2023 | -38.74 | yes | | JPN | Japan | 2005 | 2023 | -21.10 | yes | | KOR | South Korea | 2005 | 2023 | 9.25 | no | | NLD | Netherlands | 2005 | 2023 | -40.22 | yes | | NOR | Norway | 2005 | 2023 | -24.77 | yes | | NZL | New Zealand | 2005 | 2023 | -32.55 | yes | | SWE | Sweden | 2005 | 2023 | -41.60 | yes | | USA | United States | 2005 | 2023 | -30.89 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive endpoint-panel test using local OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern only; it does not identify a policy-level causal effect.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.