IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·owid_renewable_electricity_fossil_displacement_2000_2024

Among countries where renewable electricity share rose by at least 15 percentage points between 2000 and 2024, fossil-fuel electricity share usually fell materially: at least 70% should show a fossil-share decline of at least 10 percentage points, and the median fossil-share change should be at most -15 percentage points.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/owid_renewable_electricity_fossil_displacement_2000_2024

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether renewable electricity share is actually linked to better or worse fossil electricity share from 2000 to 2024.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 58 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Renewable electricity share
What we checked
  • Fossil electricity share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_renewable_electricity_fossil_displacement_2000_2024
1007550250200020122024ABWAFGAUSBELBGRBLZCAF
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fossil_electricity_share across 58 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_renewable_electricity_fossil_displacement_2000_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_renewable_electricity_fossil_displacement_2000_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Among countries where renewable electricity share rose by at least 15 percentage points between 2000 and 2024, fossil-fuel electricity share usually fell materially: at least 70% should show a fossil-share decline of at least 10 percentage points, and the median fossil-share change should be at most -15 percentage points.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 70% of selected countries have fossil-electricity-share declines of at least 10pp and the median fossil-share change is <= -15pp. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median decline is less than 5pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      renewable_electricity_growth_fossil_share_endpoint_change
threshold: n >= 20 AND pass_rate >= 0.70 AND median_fossil_change_pp <= -15

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
58 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom OWID endpoint-panel replication using local vintages on disk. Countries are selected by the predeclared treatment-threshold rule, then graded against endpoint change thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fossil_electricity_share
outcome
owid:share-electricity-fossil-fuelstier 2
endpoint percentage-point change
renewable_electricity_share
treatment
owid:share-electricity-renewablestier 2
countries selected if endpoint increase >= 15pp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - owid_renewable_electricity_fossil_displacement_2000_2024

Verdict: supported - 57 of 58 countries passed; median fossil electricity share change -25.2pp

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if at least 70% of selected countries have fossil-electricity-share declines of at least 10pp and the median fossil-share change is <= -15pp. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median decline is less than 5pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 20 AND pass_rate >= 0.70 AND median_fossil_change_pp <= -15

Metrics

  • n_countries: 58
  • pass_rate: 0.9827586206896551
  • median_fossil_change_pp: -25.246634999999998

Country Endpoints

| country_iso3 | country_name | start_year | end_year | renewable_electricity_change_pp | fossil_change_pp | pass | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | ABW | Aruba | 2000 | 2024 | 17.00 | -17.00 | yes | | AFG | Afghanistan | 2000 | 2024 | 22.29 | -22.29 | yes | | AUS | Australia | 2000 | 2024 | 26.99 | -26.99 | yes | | BEL | Belgium | 2000 | 2024 | 33.96 | -16.91 | yes | | BGR | Bulgaria | 2000 | 2024 | 23.44 | -19.85 | yes | | BLZ | Belize | 2000 | 2024 | 18.00 | -18.00 | yes | | CAF | Central African Republic | 2000 | 2023 | 20.00 | -20.00 | yes | | CHL | Chile | 2000 | 2024 | 20.21 | -20.21 | yes | | CHN | China | 2000 | 2024 | 17.06 | -20.29 | yes | | COK | Cook Islands | 2000 | 2024 | 50.00 | -50.00 | yes | | CPV | Cape Verde | 2000 | 2024 | 24.10 | -24.10 | yes | | CYP | Cyprus | 2000 | 2024 | 24.01 | -24.01 | yes | | DEU | Germany | 2000 | 2024 | 52.42 | -22.61 | yes | | DJI | Djibouti | 2000 | 2024 | 35.00 | -35.00 | yes | | DNK | Denmark | 2000 | 2024 | 73.65 | -73.65 | yes | | ESP | Spain | 2000 | 2024 | 41.72 | -32.97 | yes | | EST | Estonia | 2000 | 2024 | 55.63 | -55.63 | yes | | FIN | Finland | 2000 | 2024 | 22.44 | -29.81 | yes | | GBR | United Kingdom | 2000 | 2024 | 48.02 | -39.74 | yes | | GIN | Guinea | 2000 | 2024 | 24.57 | -24.57 | yes | | GLP | Guadeloupe | 2000 | 2023 | 25.49 | -25.49 | yes | | GRC | Greece | 2000 | 2024 | 41.41 | -41.41 | yes | | GRL | Greenland | 2000 | 2024 | 24.71 | -24.71 | yes | | GTM | Guatemala | 2000 | 2024 | 18.18 | -18.18 | yes | | HRV | Croatia | 2000 | 2024 | 15.91 | -15.91 | yes | | HUN | Hungary | 2000 | 2024 | 30.79 | -32.65 | yes | | IRL | Ireland | 2000 | 2024 | 41.49 | -41.49 | yes | | ITA | Italy | 2000 | 2024 | 31.33 | -31.33 | yes | | JOR | Jordan | 2000 | 2024 | 23.54 | -23.54 | yes | | KEN | Kenya | 2000 | 2024 | 51.11 | -51.11 | yes | | KHM | Cambodia | 2000 | 2024 | 29.41 | -29.41 | yes | | KIR | Kiribati | 2000 | 2024 | 25.00 | -25.00 | yes | | LBN | Lebanon | 2000 | 2024 | 39.40 | -39.40 | yes | | LBR | Liberia | 2000 | 2024 | 54.39 | -54.39 | yes | | LTU | Lithuania | 2000 | 2024 | 81.25 | -5.60 | no | | LUX | Luxembourg | 2000 | 2024 | 50.73 | -50.73 | yes | | MAC | Macao | 2000 | 2024 | 30.77 | -30.77 | yes | | MAR | Morocco | 2000 | 2024 | 18.79 | -18.79 | yes | | MKD | North Macedonia | 2000 | 2024 | 22.28 | -22.28 | yes | | MLT | Malta | 2000 | 2024 | 15.53 | -15.53 | yes | | MRT | Mauritania | 2000 | 2024 | 15.56 | -15.56 | yes | | MTQ | Martinique | 2000 | 2023 | 25.83 | -25.83 | yes | | NIC | Nicaragua | 2000 | 2024 | 40.90 | -40.90 | yes | | NLD | Netherlands | 2000 | 2024 | 47.37 | -45.82 | yes | | NRU | Nauru | 2000 | 2024 | 20.00 | -20.00 | yes | | POL | Poland | 2000 | 2024 | 29.52 | -29.52 | yes | | PRT | Portugal | 2000 | 2024 | 55.41 | -55.41 | yes | | PSE | Palestine | 2000 | 2024 | 39.39 | -39.39 | yes | | ROU | Romania | 2000 | 2024 | 17.84 | -27.95 | yes | | SDN | Sudan | 2000 | 2024 | 29.69 | -29.69 | yes | | SEN | Senegal | 2000 | 2024 | 16.43 | -16.43 | yes | | SLE | Sierra Leone | 2000 | 2024 | 84.13 | -84.13 | yes | | SLV | El Salvador | 2000 | 2024 | 34.92 | -34.92 | yes | | SOM | Somalia | 2000 | 2024 | 20.93 | -20.93 | yes | | SYC | Seychelles | 2000 | 2024 | 15.87 | -15.87 | yes | | TUR | Turkey | 2000 | 2024 | 20.56 | -20.56 | yes | | VEN | Venezuela | 2000 | 2024 | 17.39 | -17.39 | yes | | VUT | Vanuatu | 2000 | 2023 | 25.00 | -25.00 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive endpoint-panel test using local OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern only; it does not identify a policy-level causal effect.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.