IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·owid_wind_solar_coal_displacement_2000_2024

Among countries where wind plus solar electricity share rose by at least 10 percentage points from 2000 to 2024, coal's electricity share should usually fall: at least 60% of selected countries should show a coal-share decline of at least 5 percentage points, with median coal-share change at most -10 percentage points.

REFUTEDengine/runs/owid_wind_solar_coal_displacement_2000_2024

refuted

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether wind plus solar share is actually linked to better or worse coal electricity share from 2000 to 2024.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. refuted

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 69 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Wind plus solar share
What we checked
  • Coal electricity share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/owid_wind_solar_coal_displacement_2000_2024
1007550250200020122024ABWAFGARGAUSAUTBELBGR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show coal_electricity_share across 69 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for owid_wind_solar_coal_displacement_2000_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/owid_wind_solar_coal_displacement_2000_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Among countries where wind plus solar electricity share rose by at least 10 percentage points from 2000 to 2024, coal's electricity share should usually fall: at least 60% of selected countries should show a coal-share decline of at least 5 percentage points, with median coal-share change at most -10 percentage points.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 60% of selected countries have coal-share declines of at least 5pp and the median coal-share change is <= -10pp. REFUTED if fewer than 40% pass or median coal-share change is non-negative. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      wind_solar_growth_coal_share_endpoint_change
threshold: n >= 20 AND pass_rate >= 0.60 AND median_coal_change_pp <= -10

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
69 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom OWID endpoint-panel replication using local vintages on disk. Countries are selected by the predeclared treatment-threshold rule, then graded against endpoint change thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
coal_electricity_share
outcome
owid:share-elec-by-sourcetier 2
endpoint percentage-point change in Coal column
wind_plus_solar_share
treatment
owid:share-elec-by-sourcetier 2
countries selected if Wind + Solar endpoint increase >= 10pp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - owid_wind_solar_coal_displacement_2000_2024

Verdict: refuted - 25 of 69 wind/solar-growth countries passed; median coal share change 0.0pp

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if at least 60% of selected countries have coal-share declines of at least 5pp and the median coal-share change is <= -10pp. REFUTED if fewer than 40% pass or median coal-share change is non-negative. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 20 AND pass_rate >= 0.60 AND median_coal_change_pp <= -10

Metrics

  • n_countries: 69
  • pass_rate: 0.36231884057971014
  • median_coal_change_pp: 0.0

Country Endpoints

| country_iso3 | country_name | start_year | end_year | wind_solar_change_pp | coal_change_pp | fossil_change_pp | pass | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | ABW | Aruba | 2000 | 2024 | 17.00 | 0.00 | -17.00 | no | | AFG | Afghanistan | 2000 | 2024 | 11.11 | 3.03 | -22.29 | no | | ARG | Argentina | 2000 | 2024 | 13.17 | -1.14 | -1.70 | no | | AUS | Australia | 2000 | 2024 | 29.37 | -37.92 | -26.99 | yes | | AUT | Austria | 2000 | 2024 | 21.90 | -9.59 | -13.39 | yes | | BEL | Belgium | 2000 | 2024 | 29.74 | -15.61 | -16.91 | yes | | BGR | Bulgaria | 2004 | 2024 | 18.15 | -22.82 | -22.86 | yes | | BRA | Brazil | 2000 | 2024 | 24.11 | -0.96 | 1.78 | no | | CHL | Chile | 2000 | 2024 | 34.55 | -5.30 | -20.21 | yes | | CHN | China | 2000 | 2024 | 18.16 | -20.44 | -20.29 | yes | | COD | Democratic Republic of Congo | 2000 | 2024 | 15.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | no | | COK | Cook Islands | 2000 | 2024 | 50.00 | 0.00 | -50.00 | no | | CPV | Cape Verde | 2000 | 2024 | 24.10 | 0.00 | -24.10 | no | | CYP | Cyprus | 2004 | 2024 | 22.97 | 0.00 | -24.01 | no | | DEU | Germany | 2000 | 2024 | 41.85 | -30.71 | -22.61 | yes | | DJI | Djibouti | 2000 | 2024 | 35.00 | 0.00 | -35.00 | no | | DNK | Denmark | 2000 | 2024 | 57.17 | -41.51 | -73.65 | yes | | DOM | Dominican Republic | 2000 | 2024 | 11.86 | 29.96 | -11.86 | no | | ERI | Eritrea | 2000 | 2024 | 11.11 | 0.00 | -11.11 | no | | ESP | Spain | 2000 | 2024 | 40.74 | -34.88 | -32.97 | yes | | EST | Estonia | 2002 | 2024 | 33.87 | 0.00 | -55.40 | no | | FIN | Finland | 2000 | 2024 | 25.83 | -11.13 | -29.81 | yes | | FRA | France | 2000 | 2024 | 12.50 | -4.89 | -4.21 | no | | FRO | Faroe Islands | 2000 | 2023 | 18.37 | 0.00 | -10.58 | no | | GBR | United Kingdom | 2000 | 2024 | 34.26 | -31.14 | -39.74 | yes | | GRC | Greece | 2000 | 2024 | 40.86 | -59.08 | -41.41 | yes | | HND | Honduras | 2000 | 2024 | 15.46 | 0.48 | 6.36 | no | | HRV | Croatia | 2004 | 2024 | 22.89 | -10.20 | -18.44 | yes | | HUN | Hungary | 2001 | 2024 | 26.03 | -17.85 | -34.12 | yes | | IND | India | 2000 | 2024 | 10.75 | 6.24 | -5.69 | no | | IRL | Ireland | 2000 | 2024 | 39.77 | -26.83 | -41.49 | yes | | ISR | Israel | 2000 | 2024 | 13.66 | -54.19 | -13.74 | yes | | ITA | Italy | 2000 | 2024 | 21.54 | -8.26 | -31.33 | yes | | JOR | Jordan | 2000 | 2024 | 24.00 | 0.00 | -23.54 | no | | JPN | Japan | 2000 | 2024 | 10.61 | 10.52 | 6.92 | no | | KEN | Kenya | 2000 | 2024 | 21.34 | 0.00 | -51.11 | no | | KIR | Kiribati | 2000 | 2024 | 25.00 | 0.00 | -25.00 | no | | LBN | Lebanon | 2000 | 2024 | 30.15 | 0.00 | -39.40 | no | | LTU | Lithuania | 2004 | 2024 | 65.09 | 0.00 | -1.48 | no | | LUX | Luxembourg | 2000 | 2024 | 49.30 | 0.00 | -50.73 | no | | LVA | Latvia | 2000 | 2024 | 12.95 | 0.00 | -5.34 | no | | MAR | Morocco | 2000 | 2024 | 21.97 | -6.87 | -18.79 | yes | | MEX | Mexico | 2000 | 2024 | 12.79 | -5.87 | -1.17 | yes | | MRT | Mauritania | 2000 | 2024 | 12.56 | 0.00 | -15.56 | no | | NAM | Namibia | 2000 | 2024 | 36.59 | 1.74 | -0.34 | no | | NIC | Nicaragua | 2000 | 2024 | 13.05 | 0.00 | -40.90 | no | | NLD | Netherlands | 2000 | 2024 | 44.25 | -21.47 | -45.82 | yes | | NRU | Nauru | 2000 | 2024 | 20.00 | 0.00 | -20.00 | no | | NZL | New Zealand | 2000 | 2024 | 10.33 | 0.16 | -14.23 | no | | PAK | Pakistan | 2000 | 2024 | 14.28 | 13.56 | -23.85 | no | | PAN | Panama | 2000 | 2024 | 14.52 | 3.72 | 2.37 | no | | POL | Poland | 2000 | 2024 | 25.30 | -40.59 | -29.52 | yes | | PRT | Portugal | 2000 | 2024 | 44.94 | -33.79 | -55.41 | yes | | PSE | Palestine | 2000 | 2024 | 39.39 | 0.00 | -39.39 | no | | ROU | Romania | 2005 | 2024 | 18.68 | -23.50 | -23.77 | yes | | SEN | Senegal | 2000 | 2024 | 14.29 | 1.31 | -16.43 | no | | SOM | Somalia | 2000 | 2024 | 20.93 | 0.00 | -20.93 | no | | SWE | Sweden | 2000 | 2024 | 25.60 | -1.13 | -2.08 | no | | SYC | Seychelles | 2000 | 2024 | 15.87 | 0.00 | -15.87 | no | | TGO | Togo | 2000 | 2024 | 18.31 | 0.00 | 25.98 | no | | TON | Tonga | 2000 | 2024 | 14.29 | 0.00 | -14.29 | no | | TUR | Turkey | 2000 | 2024 | 18.20 | 4.85 | -20.56 | no | | URY | Uruguay | 2000 | 2024 | 42.78 | 0.00 | -5.47 | no | | USA | United States | 2000 | 2024 | 17.05 | -36.86 | -12.81 | yes | | VNM | Vietnam | 2000 | 2024 | 12.72 | 38.54 | 12.50 | no | | VUT | Vanuatu | 2000 | 2023 | 12.50 | 0.00 | -25.00 | no | | WSM | Samoa | 2000 | 2024 | 18.75 | 0.00 | 6.25 | no | | YEM | Yemen | 2000 | 2024 | 11.24 | 0.00 | -11.24 | no | | ZAF | South Africa | 2000 | 2024 | 11.88 | -9.52 | -8.74 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive endpoint-panel test using local OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern only; it does not identify a policy-level causal effect.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.