IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·payroll_tax_labor_force_participation

Higher tax burden proxies predict lower labour-force participation over long windows.

PARTIALengine/runs/payroll_tax_labor_force_participation

PARTIAL — coef=-0.07664, p=0.596 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether market or intervention proxy is actually linked to better or worse qol or prosperity outcome from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.07664, p=0.596 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/payroll_tax_labor_force_participation
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for payroll_tax_labor_force_participation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/payroll_tax_labor_force_participation/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:52Z

Higher tax burden proxies predict lower labour-force participation over long windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_payroll_tax_labor_force_participation
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — payroll_tax_labor_force_participation

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.07664, p=0.596 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher tax burden proxies predict lower labour-force participation over long windows.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_payroll_tax_labor_force_participation

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.07664
  • Std error: 0.1444
  • p-value: 0.596
  • Observations: 636, countries: 29
  • Within R²: 0.00865
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.ZS → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8302)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:52+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.