IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·phillips_curve_flattening_post_1990

The Phillips curve flattened post-1990 in OECD economies, reflecting endogenous expectation formation and labour-market regime change rather than pure NAIRU drift.

PARTIALengine/runs/phillips_curve_flattening_post_1990

PARTIAL — coef=-0.007239, p=0.16 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether unemployment gap is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation yoy from 1970 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.007239, p=0.16 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1970 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Unemployment gap
  • Unemployment rate
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Core inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

8 input datasets, 1 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/phillips_curve_flattening_post_1990
1007550250197019972023USAGBRFRADEUITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation_yoy across 20 sampled countries over 1970–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for phillips_curve_flattening_post_1990. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/phillips_curve_flattening_post_1990/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:59Z

The Phillips curve flattened post-1990 in OECD economies, reflecting endogenous expectation formation and labour-market regime change rather than pure NAIRU drift.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Compare rolling-window Phillips slope OECD panel pre- and post-1990 with country/year FE and expectations control; supported if post-1990 slope is <0.5 of pre-1990 magnitude at p<0.05.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1970 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

OECD panel estimating rolling-window Phillips slope (inflation on unemployment gap) pre- and post-1990 with country and year FE. Tests whether observed flattening is robust to NAIRU-drift and expectations controls.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
core_inflation
outcome
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
log_yoy
unemployment_gap
treatment
oecd:OutputGaptier 2
level
unemployment_rate
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
post_1990_window
treatment
derived:post_1990_indicatortier 4
indicator
ten_year_inflation_expectations
control
fred:T10YIEtier 1
level
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_yoy
import_price_index
control
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
log_yoy
union_density
control
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — phillips_curve_flattening_post_1990

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.007239, p=0.16 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Phillips curve flattened post-1990 in OECD economies, reflecting endogenous expectation formation and labour-market regime change rather than pure NAIRU drift.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Compare rolling-window Phillips slope OECD panel pre- and post-1990 with country/year FE and expectations control; supported if post-1990 slope is <0.5 of pre-1990 magnitude at p<0.05.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.007239
  • Std error: 0.005141
  • p-value: 0.16
  • Observations: 292, countries: 15
  • Within R²: 0.133
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL,1.0 → core_inflation (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=2908)
  • oecd:OutputGap → unemployment_gap (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=3331)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • fred:T10YIE → ten_year_inflation_expectations (controls, publisher=fred, n=480)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=740)
  • oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL,1.0 → import_price_index (controls, publisher=oecd, n=2908)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_TU@DF_TUD,1.0 → union_density (controls, publisher=oecd, n=1825)

Variables missing data

  • derived:post_1990_indicator (treatment, name=post_1990_window) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:59+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a Post-Keynesian school prediction about Phillips-curve flattening in OECD post-1990. Rolling-window slope estimation is sensitive to break specification; needs human review.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.