IESET.
Hypotheses·healthcare·physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality

State-capped medical-school or residency places predict slower physician-supply growth and weaker mortality improvement in ageing populations.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality

SUPPORTED — coef=-0.3393 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0602

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the healthcare rule being tested improve access, cost, or outcomes for patients, or does it mainly shift pressure around the system?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-0.3393 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0602

why it matters

This matters because healthcare claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:10Z

State-capped medical-school or residency places predict slower physician-supply growth and weaker mortality improvement in ageing populations.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.MED.PHYS.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for USA from 1997 onward; CAN from 1993 onward; GBR from 1990 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-0.3393 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0602

Pre-registration

  • Claim: State-capped medical-school or residency places predict slower physician-supply growth and weaker mortality improvement in ageing populations.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_physician_supply_cap_residency_constraint_mortality

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.3393
  • Std error: 0.1802
  • p-value: 0.0602
  • Observations: 626, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.0854
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SH.MED.PHYS.ZS → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4572)
  • constructed: 1 for USA from 1997 onward; CAN from 1993 onward; GBR from 1990 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1020)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:10+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.