IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path

Post-2008 OECD GDP growth has slowed to roughly 1-2% trend levels while per-capita emissions remain above 1.5C-consistent paths, falsifying the 'green growth will solve it' forecasts of 2005-2010 IPCC scenarios.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 26 country or place units from 2008 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log real income
  • Log co2 emissions per capita
  • Real income growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:59Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Post-2008 OECD GDP growth has slowed to roughly 1-2% trend levels while per-capita emissions remain above 1.5C-consistent paths, falsifying the 'green growth will solve it' forecasts of 2005-2010 IPCC scenarios.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the dispositive thresholds for this hypothesis are encoded directly in engine/runs/post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path/replication.py and pinned in methodology_note. The auto-grader's verdict in diagnostics.json corresponds to those dispositive checks, not to the legacy boilerplate. See methodology_note for the exact pre-registered thresholds. Headline: above-1.5C emissions). REFUTED if growth is fast (>2.0%) AND emissions

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE of OECD real GDP growth and per-capita CO2 2008-2023 (excluding 2020) benchmarked against IPCC 1.5C SSP1-1.9 trajectory; falsified if mean OECD growth >2% and per-capita emissions on or below 1.5C trajectory by 2023.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
26 countries · 2008 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

OECD-country panel of GDP growth and per-capita CO2 emissions 2008-2023 benchmarked against 1.5C-consistent emissions trajectories. Tests whether observed OECD post-2008 growth-emissions paths fall short of the IPCC pathway requirements.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_real_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log
log_co2_emissions_per_capita
outcome
owid:co-emissions-per-capitatier 2
log
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
log_co2_total_emissions
outcome
owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-countrytier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-2008 OECD GDP growth has slowed to roughly 1-2% trend levels while per-capita emissions remain above 1.5C-consistent paths, falsifying the 'green growth will solve it' forecasts of 2005-2010 IPCC scenarios.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the dispositive thresholds for this hypothesis are encoded directly in engine/runs/post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path/replication.py and pinned in methodology_note. The auto-grader's verdict in diagnostics.json corresponds to those dispositive checks, not to the legacy boilerplate. See methodology_note for the exact pre-registered thresholds. Headline: above-1.5C emissions). REFUTED if growth is fast (>2.0%) AND emissions
  • Falsification test: Panel FE of OECD real GDP growth and per-capita CO2 2008-2023 (excluding 2020) benchmarked against IPCC 1.5C SSP1-1.9 trajectory; falsified if mean OECD growth >2% and per-capita emissions on or below 1.5C trajectory by 2023.

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → log_real_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)

Variables missing data

  • owid:co-emissions-per-capita (outcome, name=log_co2_emissions_per_capita) — vintage not on disk
  • owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country (outcome, name=log_co2_total_emissions) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:59+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a degrowth claim that post-2008 OECD growth has slowed to 1-2% trend levels while per-capita emissions remain above 1.5C-consistent paths, falsifying 2005-2010 IPCC green-growth scenarios. OECD panel benchmarked against 1.5C trajectories; human review needed for the benchmark-trajectory choice.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.