IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·post_covid_inflation_episode_supply_vs_demand_decomposition

The 2021-2024 OECD inflation episode is best decomposed as ~60% supply-shock-driven (energy-price spike, supply-chain disruption, COVID labour-supply effects) and ~40% demand-driven (US fiscal stimulus, post-pandemic durable-goods boom, monetary accommodation), refuting both the pure-monetarist and pure-supply-shock framings.

The mix is highly heterogeneous across OECD: more demand-side in the US, more supply-side in EU/UK, with the US 2021 ARP fiscal stimulus producing the strongest demand contribution.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/post_covid_inflation_episode_supply_vs_demand_decomposition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether ny fed global supply chain pressure is a real pathway to better or worse cpi headline yoy from 2018 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2018 to 2024, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and quarter.

what was measured
Possible pathway
  • Ny fed global supply chain pressure
  • Oil price brent
What we checked
  • Cpi headline yoy
  • Cpi core yoy
  • Ppi yoy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/post_covid_inflation_episode_supply_vs_demand_decomposition
1007550250201820212024USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPCAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_headline_yoy across 7 sampled countries over 2018–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for post_covid_inflation_episode_supply_vs_demand_decomposition. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/post_covid_inflation_episode_supply_vs_demand_decomposition/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:23Z

The 2021-2024 OECD inflation episode is best decomposed as ~60% supply-shock-driven (energy-price spike, supply-chain disruption, COVID labour-supply effects) and ~40% demand-driven (US fiscal stimulus, post-pandemic durable-goods boom, monetary accommodation), refuting both the pure-monetarist and pure-supply-shock framings. The mix is highly heterogeneous across OECD: more demand-side in the US, more supply-side in EU/UK, with the US 2021 ARP fiscal stimulus producing the strongest demand contribution.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Run Bernanke-Blanchard 2023 structural decomposition on 7 OECD economies (USA, GBR, DEU, FRA, ITA, ESP, CAN) for 2021-Q1 to 2024-Q4 inflation episode. Decompose cumulative CPI deviation from 2% target into (a) supply-shock channel (energy + supply-chain + COVID labour constraints), (b) demand-shock channel (fiscal-impulse + monetary accommodation), (c) wage-markup channel, (d) inflation-expectations channel. SUPPORTED if cross-country median supply-share is in [50%, 70%] AND demand-share is in [30%, 50%], with US specifically showing demand-share >=40%. REFUTED if median supply-share <30% (pure-monetarist case) OR median supply-share >85% (pure-supply-shock case).

formal test & threshold
test:      oecd_post_covid_inflation_decomposition_2021_2024
threshold: SUPPORTED: median supply-share in [50%, 70%] AND median demand-share in [30%, 50%]; AND US demand-share >=40%. REFUTED: median supply-share <30% OR >85%.

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, quarter
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2018 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Bernanke-Blanchard 2023 structural NK decomposition extended cross-country. Identification: supply shocks via GSCPI + energy prices, demand shocks via fiscal-impulse + shadow-rate, wage-markup channel via Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker, expectations channel via 5y5y breakeven. Cross-country panel allows test of US-specific demand-driven claim.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_headline_yoy
outcome
fred:CPIAUCSLtier 1
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
pct_change_yoy
cpi_core_yoy
outcome
fred:CPILFESLtier 1
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
pct_change_yoy
ppi_yoy
outcome
fred:PPIACOtier 1
pct_change_yoy
ny_fed_global_supply_chain_pressure
channel
fred:T5YIFRtier 1
level
oil_price_brent
channel
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff
natural_gas_ttf_europe
channel
imf_pcps:PNGASEUtier 1
log_diff
cbo_fiscal_impulse
channel
fred:FYFSGDA188Stier 1
pct_gdp
shadow_fed_funds_rate
channel
fred:WUXIASHADOWRATEtier 1
level
ecb_policy_rate
channel
ecb:FM.B.U2.EUR.4F.KR.MRR_FR.LEVtier 1
level
covid_labour_supply_shock
channel
constructed:peak-to-recovery LFPR gap by countrytier 5
level
usd_broad_index
control
fred:DTWEXBGStier 1
log_diff
long_term_inflation_expectations_5y5y
control
fred:T5YIFRtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — post_covid_inflation_episode_supply_vs_demand_decomposition

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The 2021-2024 OECD inflation episode is best decomposed as ~60% supply-shock-driven (energy-price spike, supply-chain disruption, COVID labour-supply effects) and ~40% demand-driven (US fiscal stimulus, post-pandemic durable-goods boom, monetary accommodation), refuting both the pure-monetarist and pure-supply-shock framings. The mix is highly heterogeneous across OECD: more demand-side in the US, more supply-side in EU/UK, with the US 2021 ARP fiscal stimulus producing the strongest demand contribution.
  • Falsification rule: Run Bernanke-Blanchard 2023 structural decomposition on 7 OECD economies (USA, GBR, DEU, FRA, ITA, ESP, CAN) for 2021-Q1 to 2024-Q4 inflation episode. Decompose cumulative CPI deviation from 2% target into (a) supply-shock channel (energy + supply-chain + COVID labour constraints), (b) demand-shock channel (fiscal-impulse + monetary accommodation), (c) wage-markup channel, (d) inflation-expectations channel. SUPPORTED if cross-country median supply-share is in [50%, 70%] AND demand-share is in [30%, 50%], with US specifically showing demand-share >=40%. REFUTED if median supply-share <30% (pure-monetarist case) OR median supply-share >85% (pure-supply-shock case).
  • Falsification test: oecd_post_covid_inflation_decomposition_2021_2024

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Variables resolved

  • fred:CPIAUCSL; oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL,1.0 → cpi_headline_yoy (outcome, publisher=fred, n=80)
  • fred:CPILFESL; oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_CORE,1.0 → cpi_core_yoy (outcome, publisher=fred, n=70)
  • fred:PPIACO → ppi_yoy (outcome, publisher=fred, n=114)
  • fred:T5YIFR → ny_fed_global_supply_chain_pressure (decomposition_channels, publisher=fred, n=24)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (decomposition_channels, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)
  • imf_pcps:PNGASEU → natural_gas_ttf_europe (decomposition_channels, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)
  • fred:FYFSGDA188S → cbo_fiscal_impulse (decomposition_channels, publisher=fred, n=97)
  • fred:DTWEXBGS → usd_broad_index (controls, publisher=fred, n=147)
  • fred:T5YIFR → long_term_inflation_expectations_5y5y (controls, publisher=fred, n=168)

Variables missing data

  • fred:WUXIASHADOWRATE (decomposition_channels, name=shadow_fed_funds_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • ecb:FM.B.U2.EUR.4F.KR.MRR_FR.LEV (decomposition_channels, name=ecb_policy_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: peak-to-recovery LFPR gap by country (decomposition_channels, name=covid_labour_supply_shock) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:23+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Bernanke-Blanchard 2023 structural decomposition extended cross-country. Tests both extreme priors with a moderate-mix supported reading; calibrated thresholds make pure-supply or pure-monetarist readings the refutation cases.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.