IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·poverty_exit_durable_jobs_vs_transfer

Durable exit from extreme poverty (sustained above-poverty-line household consumption for at least 5 consecutive years) is more strongly associated with private formal-sector job creation than with the expansion of cash transfers or social-assistance programmes alone, over 15-25 year windows in low- and middle-income countries 1995-2020.

The claim is conditional on controlling for initial poverty depth, human capital, and agricultural productivity growth.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/poverty_exit_durable_jobs_vs_transfer

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.9088 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00194

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.9088 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00194

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 26 country or place units from 1995 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Formal private jobs growth
  • Social assistance coverage
What we checked
  • Poverty exit rate 5y
  • Sustained consumption growth bottom quartile
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 4 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/poverty_exit_durable_jobs_vs_transfer
1007550250199520082020BRAMEXCOLPERCHLZAFIDN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty_exit_rate_5y across 26 sampled countries over 1995–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for poverty_exit_durable_jobs_vs_transfer. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/poverty_exit_durable_jobs_vs_transfer/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:57Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Durable exit from extreme poverty (sustained above-poverty-line household consumption for at least 5 consecutive years) is more strongly associated with private formal-sector job creation than with the expansion of cash transfers or social-assistance programmes alone, over 15-25 year windows in low- and middle-income countries 1995-2020. The claim is conditional on controlling for initial poverty depth, human capital, and agricultural productivity growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if cash-transfer expansion has a positive and significant (p < 0.10) association with durable poverty exit larger in magnitude than formal job creation, or if formal job creation is negatively and significantly associated with poverty exit.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_poverty_exit_jobs_vs_transfers_1995_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
26 countries · 1995 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty_exit_rate_5y
outcome
constructed:povcalnet_world_bank; world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 5
level
sustained_consumption_growth_bottom_quartile
outcome
constructed:lsms_household_survey_panelstier 5
log_diff
formal_private_jobs_growth
treatment
ilostat:EMP_SEX_ECO_ECO_NB_Atier 2
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
social_assistance_coverage
treatment
constructed:aspire_world_bank; world_bank_wdi:per_si_allsi.cov_pop_tottier 5
level
cash_transfer_gdp
treatment
constructed:aspire_world_banktier 5
level
initial_poverty_headcount
control
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
agricultural_productivity_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:EA.PRD.AGRI.KDtier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — poverty_exit_durable_jobs_vs_transfer

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.9088 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00194

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Durable exit from extreme poverty (sustained above-poverty-line household consumption for at least 5 consecutive years) is more strongly associated with private formal-sector job creation than with the expansion of cash transfers or social-assistance programmes alone, over 15-25 year windows in low- and middle-income countries 1995-2020. The claim is conditional on controlling for initial poverty depth, human capital, and agricultural productivity growth.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if cash-transfer expansion has a positive and significant (p < 0.10) association with durable poverty exit larger in magnitude than formal job creation, or if formal job creation is negatively and significantly associated with poverty exit.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_poverty_exit_jobs_vs_transfers_1995_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.9088
  • Std error: 0.2879
  • p-value: 0.00194
  • Observations: 191, countries: 20
  • Within R²: 0.422
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • constructed:povcalnet_world_bank; world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → poverty_exit_rate_5y (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • ilostat:EMP_SEX_ECO_ECO_NB_A; world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → formal_private_jobs_growth (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → initial_poverty_headcount (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:lsms_household_survey_panels (outcome, name=sustained_consumption_growth_bottom_quartile) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:aspire_world_bank; world_bank_wdi:per_si_allsi.cov_pop_tot (treatment, name=social_assistance_coverage) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:aspire_world_bank (treatment, name=cash_transfer_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:EA.PRD.AGRI.KD (controls, name=agricultural_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:57+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.