IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel

Countries with stronger price-signal institutions, proxied by higher Heritage monetary-freedom scores, achieve faster electricity-access gains from below-universal-access baselines.

The market mechanism is that prices and cost recovery guide investment and ration scarce supply; the price-control counterclaim is that administratively cheap energy can expand access without damaging investment incentives.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether monetary freedom price signal proxy is actually linked to better or worse electricity access growth from 1995 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 26 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Monetary freedom price signal proxy
What we checked
  • Electricity access growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel
1007550250199520102024ARGBGDBRACHLCHNCOLEGY
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show electricity_access_growth across 26 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries with stronger price-signal institutions, proxied by higher Heritage monetary-freedom scores, achieve faster electricity-access gains from below-universal-access baselines. The market mechanism is that prices and cost recovery guide investment and ration scarce supply; the price-control counterclaim is that administratively cheap energy can expand access without damaging investment incentives.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy is positive for electricity_access_growth at p<=0.10 with at least 180 observations and 18 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
26 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary sample is restricted to countries with room for access expansion. Replication should report whether the result survives controls for income, urbanization, fuel rents, and government effectiveness.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
electricity_access_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZStier 2
annual_change
monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy
treatment
heritage_ief:ief_paneltier 4
monetary_freedom_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
urban_population_share
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZStier 2
level
fossil_fuel_rents
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries with stronger price-signal institutions, proxied by higher Heritage monetary-freedom scores, achieve faster electricity-access gains from below-universal-access baselines. The market mechanism is that prices and cost recovery guide investment and ration scarce supply; the price-control counterclaim is that administratively cheap energy can expand access without damaging investment incentives.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy is positive for electricity_access_growth at p<=0.10 with at least 180 observations and 18 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_price_control_intensity_electricity_access_growth_panel

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS → electricity_access_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7746)
  • heritage_ief:ief_panel → monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=525)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS → urban_population_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS → fossil_fuel_rents (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11504)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate uses ready WDI, WGI, and Heritage IEF sources; a stronger v2 would replace the broad price-control proxy with utility-tariff cost-recovery data.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.