IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel

Stronger price-signal freedom predicts lower inflation volatility and higher private investment in country-year panels.

The market mechanism is that flexible prices transmit scarcity and investment information; the price-control counterclaim is that administrative price management can stabilize purchasing power without undermining investment.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether monetary freedom price signal proxy is actually linked to better or worse inflation volatility 5y from 1995 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 41 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Monetary freedom price signal proxy
What we checked
  • Inflation volatility 5y
  • Private investment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel
1007550250199520102024ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show inflation_volatility_5y across 41 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:24Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Stronger price-signal freedom predicts lower inflation volatility and higher private investment in country-year panels. The market mechanism is that flexible prices transmit scarcity and investment information; the price-control counterclaim is that administrative price management can stabilize purchasing power without undermining investment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy is negative for inflation_volatility_5y at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
41 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary test uses rolling inflation volatility. Private investment is a secondary mechanism check because WDI private-investment coverage is thinner than total investment coverage.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
inflation_volatility_5y
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
rolling_5y_standard_deviation
private_investment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FPRV.ZStier 2
level
monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy
treatment
heritage_ief:ief_paneltier 4
monetary_freedom_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
government_consumption_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
control_of_corruption
control
wgi:CC.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Stronger price-signal freedom predicts lower inflation volatility and higher private investment in country-year panels. The market mechanism is that flexible prices transmit scarcity and investment information; the price-control counterclaim is that administrative price management can stabilize purchasing power without undermining investment.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy is negative for inflation_volatility_5y at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_price_signal_freedom_inflation_volatility_panel

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation_volatility_5y (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FPRV.ZS → private_investment_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3304)
  • heritage_ief:ief_panel → monetary_freedom_price_signal_proxy (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=525)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:CC.EST → control_of_corruption (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5201)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:24+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate intentionally uses common WDI, WGI, and Heritage IEF data. A later causal version should separate price-control legal coding from inflation outcomes.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.