IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·productivity_compensation_decoupling_post_1973

US labour productivity and median compensation grew together 1945-1973 but decoupled after 1973, and the decoupling magnitude exceeds what composition-adjusted measures eliminate.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/productivity_compensation_decoupling_post_1973

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (0) or post (41) obs

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre (0) or post (41) obs

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1947 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log labour productivity
  • Log real hourly compensation
  • Log median real weekly earnings
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/productivity_compensation_decoupling_post_1973
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:15:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

US labour productivity and median compensation grew together 1945-1973 but decoupled after 1973, and the decoupling magnitude exceeds what composition-adjusted measures eliminate.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the cumulative log-gap between US nonfarm-business labour productivity (BLS PRS85006092, output per hour) and real hourly compensation (BLS PRS85006112, composition-adjusted) over 1973-2019 is at least +30 log-percentage-points (productivity > compensation). REFUTED if the cumulative log-gap is <= 0 (compensation kept up with productivity). PARTIAL if the gap is in (0, +30) — directionally consistent with decoupling but below the EPI/Mishel "large gap" framing the Marxian claim leans on. INFORMATIVE (reported, not gating): pre-1973 baseline cumulative gap (1947-1973), median weekly real-earnings gap (FRED LES1252881600Q, post-1979), and labour share change (FRED PRS85006173). METHOD_VALID: BLS PRS85006092 and PRS85006112 must both have annual coverage at 1973 and 2019 endpoints. If either endpoint is missing, the verdict is `inconclusive — data gap`.

formal test & threshold
test:      us_nfb_productivity_compensation_log_gap_1973_2019
threshold: PRIMARY: cumulative_log_gap_ppt(productivity, compensation, 1973, 2019) >= +30 for SUPPORTED; <= 0 for REFUTED; in (0, +30) for partial.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1947 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country US time-series cumulative-log-gap test. Annual collapse of BLS monthly/quarterly observations within each calendar year. The PRIMARY statistic is gap_ppt = 100 * (log(P_2019/P_1973) - log(C_2019/C_1973)). Pre-1973 baseline gap (1947-1973) reported as informative, to confirm the claim's "co-movement era" premise.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_labour_productivity
outcome
bls:PRS85006092tier 1
log
log_real_hourly_compensation
outcome
bls:PRS85006112tier 1
log
log_median_real_weekly_earnings
outcome
fred:LES1252881600Qtier 1
log
labour_share
outcome
fred:PRS85006173tier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — productivity_compensation_decoupling_post_1973

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (0) or post (41) obs

Pre-registration

  • Claim: US labour productivity and median compensation grew together 1945-1973 but decoupled after 1973, and the decoupling magnitude exceeds what composition-adjusted measures eliminate.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the cumulative log-gap between US nonfarm-business labour productivity (BLS PRS85006092, output per hour) and real hourly compensation (BLS PRS85006112, composition-adjusted) over 1973-2019 is at least +30 log-percentage-points (productivity > compensation). REFUTED if the cumulative log-gap is <= 0 (compensation kept up with productivity). PARTIAL if the gap is in (0, +30) — directionally consistent with decoupling but below the EPI/Mishel "large gap" framing the Marxian claim leans on. INFORMATIVE (reported, not gating): pre-1973 baseline cumulative gap (1947-1973), median weekly real-earnings gap (FRED LES1252881600Q, post-1979), and labour share change (FRED PRS85006173). METHOD_VALID: BLS PRS85006092 and PRS85006112 must both have annual coverage at 1973 and 2019 endpoints. If either endpoint is missing, the verdict is inconclusive — data gap.
  • Falsification test: us_nfb_productivity_compensation_log_gap_1973_2019

Comparison

  • Error: insufficient pre (0) or post (41) obs

Variables resolved

  • bls:PRS85006092 → log_labour_productivity (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • bls:PRS85006112 → log_real_hourly_compensation (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • fred:LES1252881600Q → log_median_real_weekly_earnings (outcome, publisher=fred, n=48)
  • fred:PRS85006173 → labour_share (outcome, publisher=fred, n=79)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-04T13:15:49+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a Marxian claim that US labour productivity and median compensation decoupled after 1973 beyond what composition-adjusted measures eliminate. Single-country descriptive; promoted to runnable v1 using the BLS productivity-and-costs (PRS) program's composition-adjusted nonfarm-business series for both productivity and real hourly compensation, so the test is on the composition-adjusted measure the spec calls for, not raw median wages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.