IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·profit_rate_secular_decline_us_1948_2023

In the US 1948-2023, the Marxian-defined real profit rate (corporate net operating surplus divided by the replacement-cost net stock of fixed capital, deflated) exhibits a secular declining trend with a structural break post-1973, consistent with the Dumenil-Levy and Shaikh long-wave readings.

The post-1973 trend coefficient is negative and statistically distinguishable from the pre-1973 trend at conventional significance, and the level after 2000 has not recovered to the 1948-1973 average.

REFUTEDengine/runs/profit_rate_secular_decline_us_1948_2023

REFUTED — shape=pre_post, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=3.09

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. shape=pre_post, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=3.09

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1948 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 1973 indicator
What we checked
  • Corporate profit rate marxian
  • Net operating surplus share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/profit_rate_secular_decline_us_1948_2023
1007550250194819862023USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show corporate_profit_rate_marxian across 1 sampled countries over 1948–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for profit_rate_secular_decline_us_1948_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/profit_rate_secular_decline_us_1948_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T11:53:52Z

In the US 1948-2023, the Marxian-defined real profit rate (corporate net operating surplus divided by the replacement-cost net stock of fixed capital, deflated) exhibits a secular declining trend with a structural break post-1973, consistent with the Dumenil-Levy and Shaikh long-wave readings. The post-1973 trend coefficient is negative and statistically distinguishable from the pre-1973 trend at conventional significance, and the level after 2000 has not recovered to the 1948-1973 average.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) the post-1973 trend coefficient is positive or zero, OR (b) the post-1973 mean profit rate is statistically indistinguishable from or higher than the 1948-1973 mean, OR (c) the secular decline disappears once capacity utilisation is conditioned on (i.e. the "decline" is purely cyclical underuse). Any of those three findings refutes the secular-decline reading and supports a stationary or recovered profit-rate reading more consistent with neoclassical capital-allocation theory.

formal test & threshold
test:      pre_post_1973_trend_coefficient_and_mean_difference
threshold: coef(trend | post_1973) < 0 at p < 0.10  AND mean(rate | 2000-2023) < mean(rate | 1948-1973)  AND decline survives conditioning on capacity utilisation

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
1 countries · 1948 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Time-series descriptive: plot the Marxian profit rate 1948-2023; estimate a Bai-Perron structural-break test allowing one break in mean and slope; report the pre-1973 and post-1973 trend coefficients and their difference. Robustness: alternative deflators, alternative numerator (after-tax vs pre-tax), and alternative capital-stock vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
corporate_profit_rate_marxian
outcome
fred:CNCFtier 1
ratio_to_capital_stock
net_operating_surplus_share_gdp
outcome
fred:A446RC1Q027SBEAtier 1
level
post_1973_indicator
treatment
dates:structural_break_1973tier 4
indicator
capital_stock_replacement_cost
control
fred:K1NTOTL1ES000tier 1
log
gdp_deflator
control
fred:GDPDEFtier 1
yoy
capacity_utilisation_manufacturing
control
fred:MCUMFNtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — profit_rate_secular_decline_us_1948_2023

Verdict: REFUTED — shape=pre_post, sign + OPPOSITE claim -; |Δ_log|=3.09

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In the US 1948-2023, the Marxian-defined real profit rate (corporate net operating surplus divided by the replacement-cost net stock of fixed capital, deflated) exhibits a secular declining trend with a structural break post-1973, consistent with the Dumenil-Levy and Shaikh long-wave readings. The post-1973 trend coefficient is negative and statistically distinguishable from the pre-1973 trend at conventional significance, and the level after 2000 has not recovered to the 1948-1973 average.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) the post-1973 trend coefficient is positive or zero, OR (b) the post-1973 mean profit rate is statistically indistinguishable from or higher than the 1948-1973 mean, OR (c) the secular decline disappears once capacity utilisation is conditioned on (i.e. the "decline" is purely cyclical underuse). Any of those three findings refutes the secular-decline reading and supports a stationary or recovered profit-rate reading more consistent with neoclassical capital-allocation theory.
  • Falsification test: pre_post_1973_trend_coefficient_and_mean_difference

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: USA
  • cut_year: 1973
  • pre_mean: 56.01527000000001
  • post_mean: 1226.6446225490197
  • delta: 1170.6293525490196
  • log_delta: 3.0864134394487763
  • n_pre: 25
  • n_post: 51

Variables resolved

  • fred:CNCF → corporate_profit_rate_marxian (outcome, publisher=fred, n=79)
  • fred:A446RC1Q027SBEA → net_operating_surplus_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=fred, n=79)
  • fred:K1NTOTL1ES000 → capital_stock_replacement_cost (controls, publisher=fred, n=100)
  • fred:GDPDEF → gdp_deflator (controls, publisher=fred, n=79)
  • fred:MCUMFN → capacity_utilisation_manufacturing (controls, publisher=fred, n=55)

Variables missing data

  • dates:structural_break_1973 (treatment, name=post_1973_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T11:53:52+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate, not pre_registered. On promotion, pin BEA fixed-asset vintage and confirm FRED K1NTOTL1ES000 series identifier; resolve numerator construction (gross operating surplus vs net cash flow) and document the deflator choice.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.