IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·property_rights_agricultural_investment

Stronger property-rights protection predicts higher agricultural investment and faster yield growth, especially for tree crops and soil conservation.

PARTIALengine/runs/property_rights_agricultural_investment

PARTIAL — coef=-5.758e-16, p=7.77e-06; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-5.758e-16, p=7.77e-06; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Treatment var
What we checked
  • Outcome var
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/property_rights_agricultural_investment
1007550250199020072023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show outcome_var across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for property_rights_agricultural_investment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/property_rights_agricultural_investment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:00Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Stronger property-rights protection predicts higher agricultural investment and faster yield growth, especially for tree crops and soil conservation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if coefficient > 0 and p < 0.10

formal test & threshold
test:      property_rights_agricultural_investment_placeholder_test

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
outcome_var
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
treatment_var
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — property_rights_agricultural_investment

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-5.758e-16, p=7.77e-06; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Stronger property-rights protection predicts higher agricultural investment and faster yield growth, especially for tree crops and soil conservation.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if coefficient > 0 and p < 0.10
  • Falsification test: property_rights_agricultural_investment_placeholder_test

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -5.758e-16
  • Std error: 1.286e-16
  • p-value: 7.77e-06
  • Observations: 3446, countries: 138
  • Within R²: 1
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → outcome_var (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → treatment_var (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:00+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.