IESET.
Hypotheses·housing·property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access

Stronger property rights and deeper credit markets predict broader long-run home access proxies.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access

SUPPORTED — coef=-13.61 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0269

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-13.61 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0269

why it matters

Housing policy affects rents, mobility, household budgets, and construction. The test looks for measurable effects rather than relying on slogans.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1996 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access
1007550250199620102024USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1996–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:15Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Stronger property rights and deeper credit markets predict broader long-run home access proxies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1996 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-13.61 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0269

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Stronger property rights and deeper credit markets predict broader long-run home access proxies.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_property_rights_mortgage_depth_home_access

Estimate

  • Method: statsmodels OLS FE fallback (linearmodels failed: exog does not have full column rank. If you wish to proceed with model estimation irrespective of the numerical accuracy of coefficient estimates, you can set check_rank=False.)
  • Coefficient (treatment): -13.61
  • Std error: 6.151
  • p-value: 0.0269
  • Observations: 612, countries: 26
  • Within R²: 0.693
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_SPP → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=bis, n=2272)
  • wgi:RL.EST → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:15+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.