IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·public_rd_frontier_innovation_complement

Public R&D spending (government and higher-education R&D) complements private-market innovation at the technology frontier, raising private patenting, total factor productivity, and venture-capital activity in sectors with high spillover potential (defence, health, general-purpose technologies).

The complementarity is stronger in high-income countries 1990-2020 where private R&D is already substantial, and weaker or absent in catch-up economies where imitation dominates invention.

PARTIALengine/runs/public_rd_frontier_innovation_complement

PARTIAL — coef=+0.01228, p=0.15 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.01228, p=0.15 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 25 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Public rd income
  • Private rd income
What we checked
  • Private patents per capita
  • Productivity growth
  • Venture capital income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/public_rd_frontier_innovation_complement
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show private_patents_per_capita across 25 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for public_rd_frontier_innovation_complement. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/public_rd_frontier_innovation_complement/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:00Z

Public R&D spending (government and higher-education R&D) complements private-market innovation at the technology frontier, raising private patenting, total factor productivity, and venture-capital activity in sectors with high spillover potential (defence, health, general-purpose technologies). The complementarity is stronger in high-income countries 1990-2020 where private R&D is already substantial, and weaker or absent in catch-up economies where imitation dominates invention.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if public R&D has a negative and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on private innovation outcomes, or if the public-private interaction term is negative and significant in a frontier-country panel.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_public_rd_private_innovation_complement_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
25 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
private_patents_per_capita
outcome
wipo:patent_applications_residentstier 2
log
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
venture_capital_gdp
outcome
constructed:PitchBook; oecd: venture_capital_investmentstier 5
log
public_rd_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZStier 2
level
private_rd_gdp
treatment
oecd: main_science_technology_indicators; world_bank_wdilevel
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
ip_protection_index
control
constructed:park_patent_rights_indextier 5
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — public_rd_frontier_innovation_complement

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.01228, p=0.15 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Public R&D spending (government and higher-education R&D) complements private-market innovation at the technology frontier, raising private patenting, total factor productivity, and venture-capital activity in sectors with high spillover potential (defence, health, general-purpose technologies). The complementarity is stronger in high-income countries 1990-2020 where private R&D is already substantial, and weaker or absent in catch-up economies where imitation dominates invention.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if public R&D has a negative and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on private innovation outcomes, or if the public-private interaction term is negative and significant in a frontier-country panel.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_public_rd_private_innovation_complement_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.01228
  • Std error: 0.008519
  • p-value: 0.15
  • Observations: 464, countries: 20
  • Within R²: 0.649
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS → public_rd_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3140)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • wipo:patent_applications_residents (outcome, name=private_patents_per_capita) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: PitchBook; oecd: venture_capital_investments (outcome, name=venture_capital_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd: main_science_technology_indicators; world_bank_wdi (treatment, name=private_rd_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: park_patent_rights_index (controls, name=ip_protection_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:00+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.