IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·qe_financialisation_minsky_channel_2008_2021

Post-2008 quantitative easing operated principally through a Minsky-style financialisation channel — collateral-revaluation, portfolio-rebalancing into long-duration risk assets, and a yield-driven compression of risk premia — rather than through the textbook quantity-theoretic broad-money or expectations channels.

Empirical signature: between 2008 and 2021, cumulative real total returns on the broad asset basket (equities + investment-grade corporate bonds + residential property) in the USA, GBR, JPN, and Eurozone Big-4 exceeded cumulative real wage growth by at least 20 log-points in five of seven economies, household financial-asset Gini rose by at least 2 points across LIS micro-data in the same countries, and the financial-corporate sector profit share rose at least 1.5 percentage points relative to non-financial-corporate sector profit share. The pattern is consistent with PK-Minsky framing of financialisation as the operative QE channel and inconsistent with pure portfolio-balance or expectations-anchoring framings.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/qe_financialisation_minsky_channel_2008_2021

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (14)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether central bank balance sheet pct income is actually linked to better or worse cumulative real asset basket return from 2008 to 2021.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (14)

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2008 to 2021, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Central bank balance sheet pct income
  • Long term yield compression
What we checked
  • Cumulative real asset basket return
  • Cumulative real wage growth
  • Household financial asset inequality
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/qe_financialisation_minsky_channel_2008_2021
1007550250200820152021USAGBRJPNDEUFRAITAESP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cumulative_real_asset_basket_return across 7 sampled countries over 2008–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for qe_financialisation_minsky_channel_2008_2021. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/qe_financialisation_minsky_channel_2008_2021/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:26Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Post-2008 quantitative easing operated principally through a Minsky-style financialisation channel — collateral-revaluation, portfolio-rebalancing into long-duration risk assets, and a yield-driven compression of risk premia — rather than through the textbook quantity-theoretic broad-money or expectations channels. Empirical signature: between 2008 and 2021, cumulative real total returns on the broad asset basket (equities + investment-grade corporate bonds + residential property) in the USA, GBR, JPN, and Eurozone Big-4 exceeded cumulative real wage growth by at least 20 log-points in five of seven economies, household financial-asset Gini rose by at least 2 points across LIS micro-data in the same countries, and the financial-corporate sector profit share rose at least 1.5 percentage points relative to non-financial-corporate sector profit share. The pattern is consistent with PK-Minsky framing of financialisation as the operative QE channel and inconsistent with pure portfolio-balance or expectations-anchoring framings.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if fewer than two of three Minsky-pattern gates are met across the 2008-2021 panel: (a) cumulative real asset basket return minus cumulative real wage growth ≥ 20 log-points in ≥5 of 7 country economies (USA, GBR, JPN, DEU, FRA, ITA, ESP), (b) household financial-asset Gini increase ≥ 2 points in ≥5 of 7 economies per LIS comparable waves, and (c) financial-vs-non-financial corporate profit-share gap widens by ≥ 1.5 percentage points in ≥5 of 7 economies. The hypothesis is REFUTED if zero of three gates are met.

formal test & threshold
test:      minsky_channel_three_gate_panel_2008_2021
threshold: at least 2 of 3 gates met (each gate requires ≥5 of 7 country pass)

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2008 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Three-gate count rule on the 2008-2021 panel. Primary gates evaluated cumulatively over the window. Secondary regression: panel FE of each gate's outcome (asset-wage gap, financial-asset Gini change, financial-vs-nonfinancial profit-share gap) on QE-intensity indicator, with country and year fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cumulative_real_asset_basket_return
outcome
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
shiller:ie_datatier 3
real_cumulative_index_base_2008
cumulative_real_wage_growth
outcome
oecd:real_average_wagetier 2
ilostat:real_wage_indextier 2
real_cumulative_index_base_2008
household_financial_asset_gini
outcome
lis:household_financetier 5
oecd:WEALTHtier 2
gini_index
financial_corporate_profit_share
outcome
oecd:financial_corp_balance_sheettier 2
eurostat:nasq_10_nf_trtier 1
bea:national_accountstier 5
pct_corporate_gva
nonfinancial_corporate_profit_share
outcome
oecd:nonfinancial_corp_balance_sheettier 2
pct_corporate_gva
central_bank_balance_sheet_pct_gdp
treatment
fred:WALCLtier 1
fred:GDPtier 1
boj:monetary_basetier 1
fred:JPNASSETStier 1
ratio_to_nominal_gdp
long_term_yield_compression
treatment
fred:DGS10 (USA)tier 1
ecb:irs_10y (EUR)tier 1
boe:gilt_10ytier 1
boj:bond_yields_10ytier 1
bp_change_from_2007
short_rate
control
fred:DFF (USA)tier 1
ecb:FM (EUR)tier 1
boe:IUDBEDR (GBR)tier 1
boj:policy_rate (JPN)tier 1
level_pct
real_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
pct_change_yoy
unemployment_rate
control
ilostat:unemployment_ratetier 2
pct_labour_force

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — qe_financialisation_minsky_channel_2008_2021

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (14)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-2008 quantitative easing operated principally through a Minsky-style financialisation channel — collateral-revaluation, portfolio-rebalancing into long-duration risk assets, and a yield-driven compression of risk premia — rather than through the textbook quantity-theoretic broad-money or expectations channels. Empirical signature: between 2008 and 2021, cumulative real total returns on the broad asset basket (equities + investment-grade corporate bonds + residential property) in the USA, GBR, JPN, and Eurozone Big-4 exceeded cumulative real wage growth by at least 20 log-points in five of seven economies, household financial-asset Gini rose by at least 2 points across LIS micro-data in the same countries, and the financial-corporate sector profit share rose at least 1.5 percentage points relative to non-financial-corporate sector profit share. The pattern is consistent with PK-Minsky framing of financialisation as the operative QE channel and inconsistent with pure portfolio-balance or expectations-anchoring framings.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if fewer than two of three Minsky-pattern gates are met across the 2008-2021 panel: (a) cumulative real asset basket return minus cumulative real wage growth ≥ 20 log-points in ≥5 of 7 country economies (USA, GBR, JPN, DEU, FRA, ITA, ESP), (b) household financial-asset Gini increase ≥ 2 points in ≥5 of 7 economies per LIS comparable waves, and (c) financial-vs-non-financial corporate profit-share gap widens by ≥ 1.5 percentage points in ≥5 of 7 economies. The hypothesis is REFUTED if zero of three gates are met.
  • Falsification test: minsky_channel_three_gate_panel_2008_2021

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (14)

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_SPP; bis:WS_SPP; shiller:ie_data → cumulative_real_asset_basket_return (outcome, publisher=bis, n=2272)
  • oecd:financial_corp_balance_sheet; eurostat:nasq_10_nf_tr; bea:national_accounts → financial_corporate_profit_share (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=906)
  • fred:WALCL; fred:GDP; boj:monetary_base; fred:JPNASSETS → central_bank_balance_sheet_pct_gdp (treatment, publisher=fred, n=25)
  • fred:DGS10 (USA); ecb:irs_10y (EUR); boe:gilt_10y; boj:bond_yields_10y → long_term_yield_compression (treatment, publisher=fred+boe, n=110)
  • fred:DFF (USA); ecb:FM (EUR); boe:IUDBEDR (GBR); boj:policy_rate (JPN) → short_rate (controls, publisher=fred+ecb+boe+boj, n=159)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • ilostat:unemployment_rate → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=ilostat, n=10188)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:real_average_wage; ilostat:real_wage_index (outcome, name=cumulative_real_wage_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • lis:household_finance (manual); oecd:WEALTH (outcome, name=household_financial_asset_gini) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:nonfinancial_corp_balance_sheet (outcome, name=nonfinancial_corporate_profit_share) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Sister to the existing qe_asset_inflation_vs_cpi_divergence_post_2008 spec. Where that hypothesis tests the asset-vs-CPI gap as a pattern-match against quantity-theoretic prediction, this hypothesis tests the joint Minsky pattern: asset-inflation, financial-sector profit share, and household financial-asset distribution all moving consistently with the financialisation reading. Targets the gap that the existing asset-vs-CPI spec leaves: financial-sector incidence and household-distributional outcomes.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.