IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·quality_adjusted_consumption_market_liberal_panel

Quality-adjusted real household consumption per capita grew faster in market-liberal economies than in state-directed peers over 30-year windows from 1960-2020, after controlling for initial income level, human capital, and demographic structure.

Quality adjustment is proxied by the expansion of product variety and falling relative prices of durables and services attributable to trade and entry liberalisation.

PARTIALengine/runs/quality_adjusted_consumption_market_liberal_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-0.03337, p=0.189 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.03337, p=0.189 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1960 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Economic freedom index
  • Trade openness
What we checked
  • Real household consumption per capita
  • Consumption variety index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

7 input datasets, 1 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/quality_adjusted_consumption_market_liberal_panel
1007550250196019902020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_household_consumption_per_capita across 37 sampled countries over 1960–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for quality_adjusted_consumption_market_liberal_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/quality_adjusted_consumption_market_liberal_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:57Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Quality-adjusted real household consumption per capita grew faster in market-liberal economies than in state-directed peers over 30-year windows from 1960-2020, after controlling for initial income level, human capital, and demographic structure. Quality adjustment is proxied by the expansion of product variety and falling relative prices of durables and services attributable to trade and entry liberalisation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the coefficient on market-liberal proxies (EFW or trade openness) in a 30-year rolling panel is negative and significant (p < 0.10) for quality- adjusted consumption growth, or if the coefficient is not distinguishable from zero after controlling for initial income and human capital.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_quality_adjusted_consumption_growth_1960_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
37 countries · 1960 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_household_consumption_per_capita
outcome
pwt:rconnatier 3
log
consumption_variety_index
outcome
constructed:unctad_trade_variety; un_comtrade:product_linestier 5
log
economic_freedom_index
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
level
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita_initial
control
pwt:rgdpetier 3
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
old_age_dependency_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OLtier 2
level
urbanisation_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — quality_adjusted_consumption_market_liberal_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.03337, p=0.189 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Quality-adjusted real household consumption per capita grew faster in market-liberal economies than in state-directed peers over 30-year windows from 1960-2020, after controlling for initial income level, human capital, and demographic structure. Quality adjustment is proxied by the expansion of product variety and falling relative prices of durables and services attributable to trade and entry liberalisation.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the coefficient on market-liberal proxies (EFW or trade openness) in a 30-year rolling panel is negative and significant (p < 0.10) for quality- adjusted consumption growth, or if the coefficient is not distinguishable from zero after controlling for initial income and human capital.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_quality_adjusted_consumption_growth_1960_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.03337
  • Std error: 0.02537
  • p-value: 0.189
  • Observations: 954, countries: 37
  • Within R²: 0.949
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rconna → real_household_consumption_per_capita (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → economic_freedom_index (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • pwt:rgdpe → log_gdp_per_capita_initial (controls, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OL → old_age_dependency_ratio (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS → urbanisation_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:unctad_trade_variety; un_comtrade:product_lines (outcome, name=consumption_variety_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:57+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.