IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·redistribution_gini_compression_median_income_growth_oecd

In OECD countries from 1995 to 2023, faster compression of disposable-income inequality does not predict faster real household income growth once aggregate GDP per capita growth, employment, and productivity controls are included.

The mechanism tested is whether redistribution-driven equality raises broad living standards directly, or whether median and lower-half gains mainly arrive through market income growth.

REFUTEDengine/runs/redistribution_gini_compression_median_income_growth_oecd

REFUTED — coef=-0.2394 (sign opposite claim +), p=0

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.2394 (sign opposite claim +), p=0

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Income inequality after taxes and transfers
  • Tax revenue share
What we checked
  • Real household disposable income growth
  • Bottom income share proxy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/redistribution_gini_compression_median_income_growth_oecd
1007550250199520092023AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_household_disposable_income_growth across 37 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for redistribution_gini_compression_median_income_growth_oecd. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/redistribution_gini_compression_median_income_growth_oecd/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:13Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In OECD countries from 1995 to 2023, faster compression of disposable-income inequality does not predict faster real household income growth once aggregate GDP per capita growth, employment, and productivity controls are included. The mechanism tested is whether redistribution-driven equality raises broad living standards directly, or whether median and lower-half gains mainly arrive through market income growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if Gini compression is not positive and significant for household income growth after controls, while GDP per capita growth or employment growth is positive at p <= 0.10. Refuted if Gini compression is positive at p <= 0.10 and remains larger than market-growth controls in standardized terms.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_gini_compression_median_income_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
37 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Five-year panel with country and period fixed effects. Primary coefficient is the association between Gini compression and real household disposable income growth after growth, employment, and TFP controls.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_household_disposable_income_growth
outcome
oecd:OECD.SDD.NADtier 2
five_year_log_change
bottom_income_share_proxy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.20tier 2
five_year_change
disposable_income_gini
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
five_year_change
tax_revenue_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
five_year_mean
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
five_year_mean
employment_to_population_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
five_year_change
total_factor_productivity_growth
control
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
five_year_log_change
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
five_year_mean

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — redistribution_gini_compression_median_income_growth_oecd

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.2394 (sign opposite claim +), p=0

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In OECD countries from 1995 to 2023, faster compression of disposable-income inequality does not predict faster real household income growth once aggregate GDP per capita growth, employment, and productivity controls are included. The mechanism tested is whether redistribution-driven equality raises broad living standards directly, or whether median and lower-half gains mainly arrive through market income growth.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if Gini compression is not positive and significant for household income growth after controls, while GDP per capita growth or employment growth is positive at p <= 0.10. Refuted if Gini compression is positive at p <= 0.10 and remains larger than market-growth controls in standardized terms.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_gini_compression_median_income_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.2394
  • Std error: 0.01307
  • p-value: 0
  • Observations: 709, countries: 36
  • Within R²: 0.755
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.20 → bottom_income_share_proxy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → disposable_income_gini (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → tax_revenue_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → employment_to_population_ratio (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity_growth (controls, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:OECD.SDD.NAD,DSD_NASEC_T7HH@DF_T7HH,1.0 (outcome, name=real_household_disposable_income_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:13+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Mechanism target: this distinguishes lower measured inequality from higher broad real incomes, allowing either side of the redistribution-growth claim to win on the data.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.