IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·redistribution_social_spending_bottom40_growth_panel

Across countries with repeated distribution data from 1995 to 2023, bottom-40 income-share gains are more durable when accompanied by employment and GDP per capita growth than when driven by social-spending or tax-share expansion alone.

The mechanism tested is whether redistribution changes shares temporarily while market-led work and productivity growth sustain lower-half income gains.

PARTIALengine/runs/redistribution_social_spending_bottom40_growth_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-3.343e-18, p=0.603; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-3.343e-18, p=0.603; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 53 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tax revenue share
  • Government consumption share
What we checked
  • Bottom income share proxy
  • Extreme poverty headcount
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/redistribution_social_spending_bottom40_growth_panel
1007550250199520092023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show bottom_income_share_proxy across 53 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for redistribution_social_spending_bottom40_growth_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/redistribution_social_spending_bottom40_growth_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:14Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across countries with repeated distribution data from 1995 to 2023, bottom-40 income-share gains are more durable when accompanied by employment and GDP per capita growth than when driven by social-spending or tax-share expansion alone. The mechanism tested is whether redistribution changes shares temporarily while market-led work and productivity growth sustain lower-half income gains.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if employment and GDP growth coefficients jointly exceed tax and government-consumption coefficients in standardized magnitude and at least one market channel is significant at p <= 0.10. Refuted if tax or government consumption channels dominate and market channels are null or wrong-signed.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bottom40_market_vs_social_spending_channels
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
53 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Five-year panel FE with standardized coefficients. A gain is counted as durable only if the bottom-40 share remains above its starting value in the following observed distribution year.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
bottom_income_share_proxy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.20tier 2
five_year_change
extreme_poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
five_year_change
tax_revenue_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
five_year_mean
government_consumption_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
five_year_mean
employment_to_population_ratio
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
five_year_change
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
five_year_mean
initial_bottom_income_share_proxy
control
world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.20tier 2
lagged_level
log_gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — redistribution_social_spending_bottom40_growth_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-3.343e-18, p=0.603; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across countries with repeated distribution data from 1995 to 2023, bottom-40 income-share gains are more durable when accompanied by employment and GDP per capita growth than when driven by social-spending or tax-share expansion alone. The mechanism tested is whether redistribution changes shares temporarily while market-led work and productivity growth sustain lower-half income gains.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if employment and GDP growth coefficients jointly exceed tax and government-consumption coefficients in standardized magnitude and at least one market channel is significant at p <= 0.10. Refuted if tax or government consumption channels dominate and market channels are null or wrong-signed.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bottom40_market_vs_social_spending_channels

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -3.343e-18
  • Std error: 6.421e-18
  • p-value: 0.603
  • Observations: 591, countries: 41
  • Within R²: 1
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.20 → bottom_income_share_proxy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → extreme_poverty_headcount (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → tax_revenue_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → employment_to_population_ratio (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.DST.FRST.20 → initial_bottom_income_share_proxy (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:14+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Designed to be refutable by redistribution-heavy countries that deliver persistent bottom-40 gains without strong employment or GDP per capita growth.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.