IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·regulatory_transparency_investment

Lower administrative and regulatory burdens, stronger impact assessment, and more stakeholder engagement predict higher investment shares.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/regulatory_transparency_investment

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_pmr:ADREG_BURDEN', 'oecd_pmr:IMPACT_ASSESSMENT', 'oecd_pmr:STAKEHOLDER_ENGAG']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether pmr administrative regulatory burden is actually linked to better or worse investment share from 2018 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_pmr:ADREG_BURDEN', 'oecd_pmr:IMPACT_ASSESSMENT', 'oecd_pmr:STAKEHOLDER_ENGAG']

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 2018 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Pmr administrative regulatory burden
  • Pmr regulatory impact assessment
What we checked
  • Investment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/regulatory_transparency_investment
1007550250201820212023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show investment_share across 40 sampled countries over 2018–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for regulatory_transparency_investment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/regulatory_transparency_investment/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Empirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:25Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Lower administrative and regulatory burdens, stronger impact assessment, and more stakeholder engagement predict higher investment shares.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the direct PMR regulatory-process burden index has a negative coefficient for investment share in the primary panel at p<0.10 and the 2018-2023 change check has the same sign. REFUTED if the panel coefficient is positive and significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      pmr_direct_regulatory_transparency_investment
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 2018 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Direct OECD PMR process-measure upgrade with WDI investment-share outcome. Uses 2018 and 2023 PMR waves plus country/year FE; cross-sectional change specification checks whether lower 2018 regulatory-process burden predicts 2018-2023 investment-share gains.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
investment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
country-year level
pmr_administrative_regulatory_burden
treatment
oecd_pmr:ADREG_BURDENtier 4
0-6 score, higher means more restrictive
pmr_regulatory_impact_assessment
treatment
oecd_pmr:IMPACT_ASSESSMENTtier 4
0-6 score, higher means more restrictive
pmr_stakeholder_engagement
treatment
oecd_pmr:STAKEHOLDER_ENGAGtier 4
0-6 score, higher means more restrictive
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
percent of GDP

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — regulatory_transparency_investment

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_pmr:ADREG_BURDEN', 'oecd_pmr:IMPACT_ASSESSMENT', 'oecd_pmr:STAKEHOLDER_ENGAG']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Lower administrative and regulatory burdens, stronger impact assessment, and more stakeholder engagement predict higher investment shares.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the direct PMR regulatory-process burden index has a negative coefficient for investment share in the primary panel at p<0.10 and the 2018-2023 change check has the same sign. REFUTED if the panel coefficient is positive and significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: pmr_direct_regulatory_transparency_investment

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_pmr:ADREG_BURDEN', 'oecd_pmr:IMPACT_ASSESSMENT', 'oecd_pmr:STAKEHOLDER_ENGAG']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_pmr:ADREG_BURDEN (treatment, name=pmr_administrative_regulatory_burden) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_pmr:IMPACT_ASSESSMENT (treatment, name=pmr_regulatory_impact_assessment) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_pmr:STAKEHOLDER_ENGAG (treatment, name=pmr_stakeholder_engagement) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:25+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.