IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·russia_china_transition_comparison

Post-1991 Russian mass privatisation produced worse output and distributional outcomes than the Chinese gradualist-with-retained-public-ownership path, controlling for initial conditions.

PARTIALengine/runs/russia_china_transition_comparison

PARTIAL — shape=bilateral, |Δ_log|=0.0471, ratio=1.05; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether privatisation pace indicator is actually linked to better or worse real income per person from 1991 to 2010.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=bilateral, |Δ_log|=0.0471, ratio=1.05; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 2 country or place units from 1991 to 2010, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Privatisation pace indicator
What we checked
  • Real income per person
  • Poverty headcount national
  • Inequality disposable income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/russia_china_transition_comparison
1007550250199120012010RUSCHN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gdp_per_capita_real across 2 sampled countries over 1991–2010.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for russia_china_transition_comparison. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/russia_china_transition_comparison/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

8 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:05:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Post-1991 Russian mass privatisation produced worse output and distributional outcomes than the Chinese gradualist-with-retained-public-ownership path, controlling for initial conditions.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Side-by-side comparison of RUS vs CHN trajectories (1991-2010) on real GDP per capita, headcount poverty, life expectancy, and Gini. Refute if RUS outcomes are not worse than CHN on at least 3 of 4 dimensions over the full window.

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
2 countries · 1991 – 2010
Evidence type
associational

Descriptive comparative case study of Russia (mass privatisation 1991-1998) versus China (gradualist reform 1978-2000). Reports side-by-side outcome trajectories (poverty, inequality, growth, life expectancy) with documented identification limits noted — no clean causal estimator given two-country n=2 design.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_per_capita_real
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
poverty_headcount_national
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.NAHCtier 2
level
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
life_expectancy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
top_10_share
outcome
wid:wid_alltier 3
level
privatisation_pace_indicator
treatment
derived:transition_path_classificationtier 4
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — russia_china_transition_comparison

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=bilateral, |Δ_log|=0.0471, ratio=1.05; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-1991 Russian mass privatisation produced worse output and distributional outcomes than the Chinese gradualist-with-retained-public-ownership path, controlling for initial conditions.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Side-by-side comparison of RUS vs CHN trajectories (1991-2010) on real GDP per capita, headcount poverty, life expectancy, and Gini. Refute if RUS outcomes are not worse than CHN on at least 3 of 4 dimensions over the full window.

Comparison

  • shape: bilateral
  • country_a: RUS
  • country_b: CHN
  • year_a: 2010
  • year_b: 2010
  • value_a: 9.0773939644645
  • value_b: 8.659537075947144
  • ratio_a_to_b: 1.0482539522439371
  • log_diff_a_minus_b: 0.04712587738734797
  • n_obs: 40

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.NAHC → poverty_headcount_national (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1172)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16931)
  • wid:wid_all → top_10_share (outcome, publisher=wid, n=450)
  • derived:transition_path_classification → privatisation_pace_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=40)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=74)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T15:05:33+00:00

Notes

Maps the market-socialist school's Russia-vs-China transition-path claim to a documented comparative case study. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off (n=2 design, descriptive only).

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.