IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·schroder_agenda_2010_median_wage_inequality

Schroder Agenda 2010 reforms reduced German unemployment but widened inequality and produced slower median-wage growth, demonstrating that not all labour-market flexibilisation is welfare-improving.

PARTIALengine/runs/schroder_agenda_2010_median_wage_inequality

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.1439, |gap|/pre_sd=0.12, p_perm=1; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether hartz iv enactment is actually linked to better or worse unemployment rate from 1995 to 2015.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+0.1439, |gap|/pre_sd=0.12, p_perm=1; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1995 to 2015, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Hartz iv enactment
  • Minijob share of employment
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
  • Inequality disposable income
  • Median real wage index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/schroder_agenda_2010_median_wage_inequality
1007550250199520052015DEUFRANLDAUTBELITAESP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 11 sampled countries over 1995–2015.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for schroder_agenda_2010_median_wage_inequality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/schroder_agenda_2010_median_wage_inequality/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-01T07:58:42Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Schroder Agenda 2010 reforms reduced German unemployment but widened inequality and produced slower median-wage growth, demonstrating that not all labour-market flexibilisation is welfare-improving.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on German employment, Gini, and median-wage post-2003 vs OECD non-reforming donor pool; supported if employment IRF positive >+1pp AND Gini IRF positive >+0.5pp at p<0.10 each.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1995 – 2015
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic DiD comparing post-2003 German Hartz/Agenda 2010 employment, unemployment, median wage, and inequality trajectory against an OECD donor pool of non-reforming peers. Donor weights constructed from pre-2003 outcome paths.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
gini_disposable_income
outcome
oecd:OECD.WISE.INEtier 2
level
median_real_wage_index
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
log
low_pay_incidence
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
share
top_10_share
outcome
wid:wid_alltier 3
level
hartz_iv_enactment
treatment
derived:agenda_2010_datestier 4
indicator
minijob_share_of_employment
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.EMPtier 2
share
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FM.M.U2.EUR.4F.KR.MRR_FR.LEVtier 1
level
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — schroder_agenda_2010_median_wage_inequality

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.1439, |gap|/pre_sd=0.12, p_perm=1; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Schroder Agenda 2010 reforms reduced German unemployment but widened inequality and produced slower median-wage growth, demonstrating that not all labour-market flexibilisation is welfare-improving.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: DEU
  • event_year: 2010
  • n_donors: 10
  • donor_weights (top): {'AUT': 0.9327, 'BEL': 0.0632, 'FIN': 0.0036, 'NLD': 0.0004, 'FRA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 3.935224029896889
  • pre_period_sd: 1.1530559396664153
  • mean_post_gap: 0.14386136361369065
  • end_period_gap: -1.3728138580553368
  • post_period_years: [2010, 2015]
  • placebo_p_value: 1.0
  • n_placebos: 10
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8071)
  • oecd:OECD.WISE.INE,DSD_IDD@DF_IDD,1.0 → gini_disposable_income (outcome, n=902)
  • wid:wid_all → top_10_share (outcome, n=450)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-01T07:58:42+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from social-democratic and New-Keynesian school predictions about Hartz/Agenda 2010 effects. Concurrent euro accession and German export model confound; needs human review of donor pool.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.