IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·second_generation_education_outcomes_by_origin

Second-generation immigrant children (born in destination country to foreign-born parents) show education outcomes (PISA scores, tertiary attainment, NEET rates) that converge toward native-born peers when controlled for parental socioeconomic status, parental years-since- arrival, and destination-country language of instruction.

The rate of convergence varies by origin group but is best explained by origin- country educational attainment norms + destination-country school- quality equality + whether parents' credentials were recognised, NOT by ethnicity as a biological variable. OECD PISA data across ~40 countries supports this: SES-adjusted performance gaps between immigrant-background and native students are narrow or zero in countries with high school-quality equality (CAN, FIN), wider in countries with greater school-quality inequality (DEU under old tracking, USA urban-suburban).

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/second_generation_education_outcomes_by_origin

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: OECD PISA microdata, by student immigrant background + origin region', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether parental ses escs is a real pathway to better or worse pisa score math from 2003 to 2022.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: OECD PISA microdata, by student immigrant background + origin region', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 13 country or place units from 2003 to 2022, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for destination country and year.

what was measured
Possible pathway
  • Parental ses escs
  • Language of instruction is home language
What we checked
  • Pisa score math
  • Pisa score reading
  • Pisa score science
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/second_generation_education_outcomes_by_origin
1007550250200320132022USAGBRCANDEUNLDFRASWE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show pisa_score_math across 13 sampled countries over 2003–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for second_generation_education_outcomes_by_origin. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/second_generation_education_outcomes_by_origin/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:00Z

Second-generation immigrant children (born in destination country to foreign-born parents) show education outcomes (PISA scores, tertiary attainment, NEET rates) that converge toward native-born peers when controlled for parental socioeconomic status, parental years-since- arrival, and destination-country language of instruction. The rate of convergence varies by origin group but is best explained by origin- country educational attainment norms + destination-country school- quality equality + whether parents' credentials were recognised, NOT by ethnicity as a biological variable. OECD PISA data across ~40 countries supports this: SES-adjusted performance gaps between immigrant-background and native students are narrow or zero in countries with high school-quality equality (CAN, FIN), wider in countries with greater school-quality inequality (DEU under old tracking, USA urban-suburban).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if, after controls for parental SES + language + parental education, the immigrant-background PISA-score gap remains larger than 0.3 standard deviations in a majority of sample countries AND the 2nd-generation gap is NOT materially smaller than the 1st-generation gap. Additionally, if origin-region residuals exceed the parental-SES coefficient magnitude, unmeasured origin factors (not channel- captured) dominate the explanation, weakening the channel- decomposition story.

formal test & threshold
test:      pisa_gap_attenuation_and_generational_convergence
threshold: Post-control immigrant-background gap < 0.30 SD in ≥60% of sample AND |2nd-generation gap| < |1st-generation gap| in ≥80% of sample

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
destination_country, year
Clustering
destination_country
Sample
13 countries · 2003 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

Student-level regression (pooled across PISA waves) with destination- country FE + year FE. Outcome is individual student PISA score; covariates are student-level (immigrant generation, home language, parental SES, parental education) + destination-country × origin- region interactions. Key test: after controlling for parental SES + language + parental education, does the immigrant-background dummy coefficient attenuate toward zero? Strong attenuation supports the channel-decomposition framing. Residual differences by origin-region should be explainable by origin-region educational norms + duration; if they aren't, the framework reports the finding honestly and flags possible destination- country school-system-quality-equality as the residual moderator. Sensitivity spec: interact immigrant-background with destination- country school-quality-equality index. Prediction: countries with higher between-school variance show larger residual gaps; countries with more equal school quality (CAN, FIN) show smaller gaps.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
pisa_score_math
outcome
constructed:OECD PISA microdata, by student immigrant background + origin regiontier 5
level_standardised
pisa_score_reading
outcome
constructed:OECD PISA microdatatier 5
level_standardised
pisa_score_science
outcome
constructed:OECD PISA microdatatier 5
level_standardised
parental_ses_escs
channel
constructed:OECD PISA ESCS (Economic Social Cultural Status) indextier 5
level
language_of_instruction_is_home_language
channel
constructed:PISA home-language indicatortier 5
indicator
parental_education_level
channel
constructed:PISA HISEI + parental-education ISCEDtier 5
level
origin_region_education_norms
channel
constructed:origin-region (country group) average PISA-equivalent scores where available; Barro-Lee education attainment years wheretier 5
level
years_since_parental_arrival
channel
constructed:PISA immigration-generation variable (1st-generation student vs 2nd-generation vs native) + arrival-year where collectedtier 5
level
school_quality_equality_destination
control
constructed:destination-country PISA between-school variance / within-school variance ratiotier 5
level
destination_country_fe
control
constructed:country dummiestier 5
categorical

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — second_generation_education_outcomes_by_origin

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: OECD PISA microdata, by student immigrant background + origin region', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Second-generation immigrant children (born in destination country to foreign-born parents) show education outcomes (PISA scores, tertiary attainment, NEET rates) that converge toward native-born peers when controlled for parental socioeconomic status, parental years-since- arrival, and destination-country language of instruction. The rate of convergence varies by origin group but is best explained by origin- country educational attainment norms + destination-country school- quality equality + whether parents' credentials were recognised, NOT by ethnicity as a biological variable. OECD PISA data across ~40 countries supports this: SES-adjusted performance gaps between immigrant-background and native students are narrow or zero in countries with high school-quality equality (CAN, FIN), wider in countries with greater school-quality inequality (DEU under old tracking, USA urban-suburban).
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if, after controls for parental SES + language + parental education, the immigrant-background PISA-score gap remains larger than 0.3 standard deviations in a majority of sample countries AND the 2nd-generation gap is NOT materially smaller than the 1st-generation gap. Additionally, if origin-region residuals exceed the parental-SES coefficient magnitude, unmeasured origin factors (not channel- captured) dominate the explanation, weakening the channel- decomposition story.
  • Falsification test: pisa_gap_attenuation_and_generational_convergence

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: OECD PISA microdata, by student immigrant background + origin region', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata', 'constructed: OECD PISA microdata']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • constructed: OECD PISA microdata, by student immigrant background + origin region (outcome, name=pisa_score_math) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: OECD PISA microdata (outcome, name=pisa_score_reading) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: OECD PISA microdata (outcome, name=pisa_score_science) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: OECD PISA ESCS (Economic Social Cultural Status) index (decomposition_channels, name=parental_ses_escs) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: PISA home-language indicator (decomposition_channels, name=language_of_instruction_is_home_language) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: PISA HISEI + parental-education ISCED (decomposition_channels, name=parental_education_level) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: origin-region (country group) average PISA-equivalent scores where available; Barro-Lee education attainment years where not (decomposition_channels, name=origin_region_education_norms) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: PISA immigration-generation variable (1st-generation student vs 2nd-generation vs native) + arrival-year where collected (decomposition_channels, name=years_since_parental_arrival) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: destination-country PISA between-school variance / within-school variance ratio (controls, name=school_quality_equality_destination) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: country dummies (controls, name=destination_country_fe) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:00+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

PISA microdata is accessible via OECD data portal (public-use files with anonymisation). New fetcher needed or use OECD Data API. Data- gated for v1.1 run; pre-registration now. The framework's treatment of this politically-charged topic is designed to be neither sentimentally pro-immigration nor hostile: just empirically disciplined, with strong steelman engagement of objections, and actionable conclusions pointed at destination-country POLICY rather than at immigrant-group characteristics.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.