IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation

Low-rate broad-base tax systems predict stronger long-run investment and employment than high-rate systems with sector exemptions.

PARTIALengine/runs/sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation

PARTIAL — coef=+0.05869, p=0.822 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether policy or institution proxy is actually linked to better or worse primary sectoral outcome from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.05869, p=0.822 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Low-rate broad-base tax systems predict stronger long-run investment and employment than high-rate systems with sector exemptions.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.05869, p=0.822 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Low-rate broad-base tax systems predict stronger long-run investment and employment than high-rate systems with sector exemptions.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_sector_neutral_tax_vs_exemption_cumulation

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.05869
  • Std error: 0.2613
  • p-value: 0.822
  • Observations: 501, countries: 22
  • Within R²: -0.00342
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.