IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality

Rogernomics (NZ) and Pinochet-era Chile produced positive macro outcomes because reforms were combined with strengthened institutions; same reforms without institutional strengthening (Russia 1990s) produced catastrophic outcomes.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality

SUPPORTED — shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=1.43, ratio=4.16

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether shock therapy onset indicator is actually linked to better or worse real income per capita growth from 1973 to 1999.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=1.43, ratio=4.16

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 3 country or place units from 1973 to 1999, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Shock therapy onset indicator
  • Institutional strengthening dummy
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Log real income per capita
  • Inflation rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality
1007550250197319861999NZLCHLRUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 3 sampled countries over 1973–1999.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Empirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:14Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Rogernomics (NZ) and Pinochet-era Chile produced positive macro outcomes because reforms were combined with strengthened institutions; same reforms without institutional strengthening (Russia 1990s) produced catastrophic outcomes.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality_placeholder_test

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
3 countries · 1973 – 1999
Evidence type
associational

Three-country small-N comparison NZL/CHL/RUS 1973-1999 around respective shock-therapy onset dates. Plot real GDP, inflation, and V-Dem trajectories against onset-year (event-time t=0 normalisation). Score on multi-metric checklist of (a) growth recovery 5y after onset, (b) inflation stabilisation, (c) institutional-quality delta. Caveat: small-N (3 countries) means descriptive only — flagged TODO swarm-6e for synthetic- control extension to broader transition-economy donor pool. RUS oil-rent shock channel is partialled via Brent control but not fully separated.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
inflation_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
institutional_quality_vdem
outcome
vdem:v2x_libdemtier 4
level
governance_indicator_composite
outcome
wgi:RuleOfLawtier 4
level
shock_therapy_onset_indicator
treatment
constructed:country-specific onset year indicators (NZL 1984 Rogernomics, CHL 1975 Pinochet-Chicago, RUS 1992 Yeltsin shock therapy)tier 5
indicator
institutional_strengthening_dummy
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for NZL and CHL (institutional reforms accompanied liberalisation); 0 for RUS (institutional decay 1992-19tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — shock_therapy_institutional_preconditions_conditionality

Verdict: SUPPORTED — shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=1.43, ratio=4.16

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rogernomics (NZ) and Pinochet-era Chile produced positive macro outcomes because reforms were combined with strengthened institutions; same reforms without institutional strengthening (Russia 1990s) produced catastrophic outcomes.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Three-country panel comparison of real GDP, inflation, and V-Dem institutional-quality trajectories 1973-1999 around shock-therapy onset dates (NZL 1984, CHL 1975, RUS 1992); supported if NZL+CHL outperform RUS counterfactual by >5pp on growth at p<0.10 with institutional-quality difference explaining outcome gap.

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: NZL
  • treatment_value: 2.4095331230015185
  • donor_pool_median: 0.5785784200783171
  • ratio: 4.1645748257865565
  • log_diff: 1.4266141877637342
  • n_donor_countries: 2
  • end_year_window: [1994, 1999]

Extracted threshold: {'pp': 5.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • wgi:RuleOfLaw → governance_indicator_composite (outcome, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • constructed: country-specific onset year indicators (NZL 1984 Rogernomics, CHL 1975 Pinochet-Chicago, RUS 1992 Yeltsin shock therapy). Joint event study around onset dates. → shock_therapy_onset_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=81)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for NZL and CHL (institutional reforms accompanied liberalisation); 0 for RUS (institutional decay 1992-1999). Hand-coded from V-Dem + WGI deltas around onset. → institutional_strengthening_dummy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=81)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=111)

Variables missing data

  • vdem:v2x_libdem (outcome, name=institutional_quality_vdem)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:14+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from an empirical-pragmatist school prediction that shock-therapy outcomes are conditional on institutional strengthening (NZ + Chile positive, Russia negative). Three-country comparison is small-N; needs human review of supplementary case-set and outcome-window selection.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.