IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·singapore_cpf_institutional_complementarity

Singapore's CPF forced-saving architecture 1955-present, combined with rule-of-law and corruption-free administration, produced savings and growth outcomes not replicable by transfer-based welfare states without the institutional base.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/singapore_cpf_institutional_complementarity

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=22, donors=1)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether singapore cpf indicator is actually linked to better or worse gross savings share income from 1965 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre-period coverage (years=22, donors=1)

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 1965 to 2023, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Singapore cpf indicator
  • Cpf contribution rate total
What we checked
  • Gross savings share income
  • Log real income per capita
  • Rule of law index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_cpf_institutional_complementarity
1007550250196519942023SGPHKGKORTWNMYSTHAARE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gross_savings_share_gdp across 10 sampled countries over 1965–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_cpf_institutional_complementarity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_cpf_institutional_complementarity/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:15:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Singapore's CPF forced-saving architecture 1955-present, combined with rule-of-law and corruption-free administration, produced savings and growth outcomes not replicable by transfer-based welfare states without the institutional base.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic control of Singapore 1965-2023 vs city-state/small-economy donor pool with similar rule-of-law indices; gross-savings and GDP-per-capita gap >0.5 SD positive with placebo p<0.10 supports.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
10 countries · 1965 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with SGP as treated unit and small-economy / city-state donor pool (HKG, KOR, TWN, MYS, ARE, IRL, CHE). Pre-treatment fit window 1965-1980; post-treatment 1981-2023. Outcomes: gross savings share of GDP, log real GDP per capita. Caveat: SGP city-state size and unique institutional inheritance limit donor-pool fit — flagged. The institutional-complementarity claim (CPF works only with rule-of-law base) is tested by interacting CPF treatment with WGI rule-of-law level.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gross_savings_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GNS.ICTR.ZStier 2
level
log_real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law_index
outcome
wgi:RuleOfLawtier 4
level
corruption_control
outcome
wgi:ControlOfCorruptiontier 4
level
singapore_cpf_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for SGP from 1955 (CPF inception); 0 for donor pool. Rule-of-law and corruption-control covariates as modetier 5
indicator
cpf_contribution_rate_total
treatment
singapore_cpf:contribution_ratetier 1
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — singapore_cpf_institutional_complementarity

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=22, donors=1)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's CPF forced-saving architecture 1955-present, combined with rule-of-law and corruption-free administration, produced savings and growth outcomes not replicable by transfer-based welfare states without the institutional base.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • Error: insufficient pre-period coverage (years=22, donors=1)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS → gross_savings_share_gdp (outcome, n=7670)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, n=14066)
  • wgi:RuleOfLaw → rule_of_law_index (outcome, n=5296)
  • wgi:ControlOfCorruption → corruption_control (outcome, n=5201)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, n=16935)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-04T13:15:49+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from institutionalist framing of Singapore CPF outcomes as conditional on rule-of-law and corruption-free administration. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.