IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990

Singapore's LKY-era industrial strategy worked through disciplined openness to foreign capital and manufacturing upgrading: FDI inflows were persistently high, FDI intensity exceeded regional peers, manufacturing value added rose sharply, and manufactured exports dominated by 1990.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990

SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1970 to 1990, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Foreign investment inflows pct income
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • Manufactured exports share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990
1007550250197019801990SGPHKGKORMYSTHAIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fdi_inflows_pct_gdp across 7 sampled countries over 1970–1990.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Singapore's LKY-era industrial strategy worked through disciplined openness to foreign capital and manufacturing upgrading: FDI inflows were persistently high, FDI intensity exceeded regional peers, manufacturing value added rose sharply, and manufactured exports dominated by 1990.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds. REFUTED if at most 1 metrics meet after available data are evaluated. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990_local_multimetric_checklist
threshold: MET >= 3 of 4; REFUTE when MET <= 1

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
7 countries · 1970 – 1990
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Custom Lee Kuan Yew / Singapore checklist using local WDI, WGI, PWT, and Fraser EFW vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
annual_mean
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
endpoint_change
manufactured_exports_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UNtier 2
endpoint_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's LKY-era industrial strategy worked through disciplined openness to foreign capital and manufacturing upgrading: FDI inflows were persistently high, FDI intensity exceeded regional peers, manufacturing value added rose sharply, and manufactured exports dominated by 1990.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics meet their thresholds; REFUTED if at most 1 meet after available data are evaluated.
  • Falsification test: singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990_local_multimetric_checklist

Metric Results

| metric | observed | threshold | status | note | |---|---:|---|---|---| | fdi_intensity_mean | 8.129 | >= 5% of GDP | MET | SGP FDI/GDP mean = 8.129; threshold >= 5 | | fdi_vs_peer_median_1990 | 7.884 | >= 3.0x peer median | MET | SGP 1990 FDI/GDP / peer median = 7.884; threshold >= 3 | | manufacturing_va_share_gain | 12.989 | >= 10pp increase | MET | SGP manufacturing VA share change = 12.989; threshold >= 10 | | manufactured_exports_share_1990 | 71.115 | >= 60% of merchandise exports | MET | SGP manufactured exports share 1990 = 71.115; threshold >= 60 |

Interpretation

This is a pre-registered descriptive checklist over local vintages. It grades whether the observed Singapore pattern clears the stated thresholds; it does not identify a single causal lever inside the LKY-era bundle.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS@2026-05-05T195106Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NV.IND.MANF.ZS@2026-05-05T194954Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN@2026-04-30T115209Z.parquet

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/singapore_lky_fdi_manufacturing_upgrade_1970_1990.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Designed to avoid collapsing Singapore into either pure laissez-faire or pure planning.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.