IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew era growth takeoff from 1965 to 1990 was not a small city-state accounting artifact: real GDP per capita grew rapidly, the level multiplied several-fold, investment rates stayed high, and the 1990 income level exceeded regional market-economy peers by a large margin.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990

SUPPORTED - 5 of 5 metrics met threshold (support threshold 4)

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. 5 of 5 metrics met threshold (support threshold 4)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1965 to 1990, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Real income pc level
  • Gross capital formation pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990
1007550250196519781990SGPHKGKORMYSTHAIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 7 sampled countries over 1965–1990.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew era growth takeoff from 1965 to 1990 was not a small city-state accounting artifact: real GDP per capita grew rapidly, the level multiplied several-fold, investment rates stayed high, and the 1990 income level exceeded regional market-economy peers by a large margin.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 4 of 5 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds. REFUTED if at most 2 metrics meet after available data are evaluated. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990_local_multimetric_checklist
threshold: MET >= 4 of 5; REFUTE when MET <= 2

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
7 countries · 1965 – 1990
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Custom Lee Kuan Yew / Singapore checklist using local WDI, WGI, PWT, and Fraser EFW vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_mean
real_gdp_pc_level
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
endpoint_ratio
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
annual_mean

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 5 of 5 metrics met threshold (support threshold 4)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew era growth takeoff from 1965 to 1990 was not a small city-state accounting artifact: real GDP per capita grew rapidly, the level multiplied several-fold, investment rates stayed high, and the 1990 income level exceeded regional market-economy peers by a large margin.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if at least 4 of 5 metrics meet their thresholds; REFUTED if at most 2 meet after available data are evaluated.
  • Falsification test: singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990_local_multimetric_checklist

Metric Results

| metric | observed | threshold | status | note | |---|---:|---|---|---| | real_gdp_pc_growth_avg | 7.053 | >= 5.0% | MET | SGP average GDP-pc growth 1965-1990 = 7.053; threshold >= 5 | | real_gdp_pc_level_multiplier | 5.522 | >= 4.0x | MET | SGP GDP-pc 1990/1965 ratio = 5.522; threshold >= 4 | | income_level_vs_peer_median_1990 | 6.829 | >= 3.0x peer median | MET | SGP 1990 GDP-pc / peer median = 6.829; threshold >= 3 | | investment_share_high | 36.970 | >= 30% of GDP | MET | SGP gross capital formation mean = 36.970; threshold >= 30 | | city_state_peer_check | 1.090 | >= 1.0x Hong Kong | MET | SGP/HKG GDP-pc 1990 = 1.090; threshold >= 1 |

Interpretation

This is a pre-registered descriptive checklist over local vintages. It grades whether the observed Singapore pattern clears the stated thresholds; it does not identify a single causal lever inside the LKY-era bundle.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG@2026-05-05T194650Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD@2026-05-05T194645Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS@2026-05-05T194659Z.parquet

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/singapore_lky_growth_takeoff_1965_1990.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Custom local-data checklist; descriptive, not causal identification.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.