IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010

Singapore's LKY-era and immediate post-LKY human-capital trajectory shows a large education upgrade: PWT human-capital index roughly doubled, upper-secondary attainment rose sharply, tertiary enrolment became mass-participation, and the 2010 human-capital level reached advanced-economy territory.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010

SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 1965 to 2010.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1965 to 2010, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Pwt human capital
  • Upper secondary attainment
  • Tertiary gross enrolment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: partial provenance.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010
1007550250196519882010SGPHKGKORMYSTHAIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show pwt_human_capital across 8 sampled countries over 1965–2010.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Singapore's LKY-era and immediate post-LKY human-capital trajectory shows a large education upgrade: PWT human-capital index roughly doubled, upper-secondary attainment rose sharply, tertiary enrolment became mass-participation, and the 2010 human-capital level reached advanced-economy territory.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds. REFUTED if at most 1 metrics meet after available data are evaluated. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010_local_multimetric_checklist
threshold: MET >= 3 of 4; REFUTE when MET <= 1

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
8 countries · 1965 – 2010
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Custom Lee Kuan Yew / Singapore checklist using local WDI, WGI, PWT, and Fraser EFW vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
pwt_human_capital
outcome
pwt:hctier 3
endpoint_change
upper_secondary_attainment
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CUAT.UP.ZStier 2
endpoint_change
tertiary_gross_enrolment
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRRtier 2
endpoint_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's LKY-era and immediate post-LKY human-capital trajectory shows a large education upgrade: PWT human-capital index roughly doubled, upper-secondary attainment rose sharply, tertiary enrolment became mass-participation, and the 2010 human-capital level reached advanced-economy territory.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics meet their thresholds; REFUTED if at most 1 meet after available data are evaluated.
  • Falsification test: singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010_local_multimetric_checklist

Metric Results

| metric | observed | threshold | status | note | |---|---:|---|---|---| | pwt_hc_index_gain | 1.497 | >= 1.20 index points | MET | SGP PWT hc change = 1.497; threshold >= 1.2 | | pwt_hc_index_ratio | 1.958 | >= 1.8x | MET | SGP PWT hc 2010/1965 = 1.958; threshold >= 1.8 | | upper_secondary_attainment_gain | 48.602 | >= 35pp increase | MET | SGP upper-secondary attainment change = 48.602; threshold >= 35 | | tertiary_enrolment_mass_participation | 93.270 | >= 70% | MET | SGP tertiary gross enrolment 2010 = 93.270; threshold >= 70 |

Interpretation

This is a pre-registered descriptive checklist over local vintages. It grades whether the observed Singapore pattern clears the stated thresholds; it does not identify a single causal lever inside the LKY-era bundle.

Sources

  • pwt:hc -> data/vintages/pwt/hc@2026-04-30T144523Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CUAT.UP.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SE.SEC.CUAT.UP.ZS@2026-04-30T115107Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRR -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/SE.TER.ENRR@2026-04-30T114614Z.parquet

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/singapore_lky_human_capital_upgrade_1965_2010.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Combines PWT and WDI because no single local series spans every desired education margin.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.