IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990

The LKY-era Singapore fiscal-market model combined high national savings, relatively low tax take, fiscal surpluses, and high economic/trade-freedom scores rather than relying on a large transfer state.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990

SUPPORTED - 5 of 5 metrics met threshold (support threshold 4)

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 1970 to 1990.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. 5 of 5 metrics met threshold (support threshold 4)

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1970 to 1990, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Gross savings pct gni
  • Tax revenue pct income
  • Net lending pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: partial provenance.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990
1007550250197019801990SGPHKGKORMYSTHAIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gross_savings_pct_gni across 7 sampled countries over 1970–1990.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

The LKY-era Singapore fiscal-market model combined high national savings, relatively low tax take, fiscal surpluses, and high economic/trade-freedom scores rather than relying on a large transfer state.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 4 of 5 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds. REFUTED if at most 2 metrics meet after available data are evaluated. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990_local_multimetric_checklist
threshold: MET >= 4 of 5; REFUTE when MET <= 2

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
7 countries · 1970 – 1990
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Custom Lee Kuan Yew / Singapore checklist using local WDI, WGI, PWT, and Fraser EFW vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gross_savings_pct_gni
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GNS.ICTR.ZStier 2
annual_mean
tax_revenue_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
annual_mean
net_lending_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
annual_mean
efw_summary_index
outcome
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
endpoint_level
efw_trade_freedom
outcome
fraser_efw:freedom_to_trade_internationallytier 4
endpoint_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 5 of 5 metrics met threshold (support threshold 4)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The LKY-era Singapore fiscal-market model combined high national savings, relatively low tax take, fiscal surpluses, and high economic/trade-freedom scores rather than relying on a large transfer state.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if at least 4 of 5 metrics meet their thresholds; REFUTED if at most 2 meet after available data are evaluated.
  • Falsification test: singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990_local_multimetric_checklist

Metric Results

| metric | observed | threshold | status | note | |---|---:|---|---|---| | gross_savings_high | 35.525 | >= 30% of GNI | MET | SGP gross savings mean = 35.525; threshold >= 30 | | tax_take_low | 15.877 | <= 18% of GDP | MET | SGP tax revenue/GDP mean = 15.877; threshold <= 18 | | net_lending_surplus | 6.057 | >= 3% of GDP | MET | SGP net lending/GDP mean = 6.057; threshold >= 3 | | economic_freedom_1990 | 8.721 | >= 8.0 | MET | SGP EFW summary 1990 = 8.721; threshold >= 8 | | trade_freedom_1990 | 10.000 | >= 9.0 | MET | SGP EFW trade freedom 1990 = 10.000; threshold >= 9 |

Interpretation

This is a pre-registered descriptive checklist over local vintages. It grades whether the observed Singapore pattern clears the stated thresholds; it does not identify a single causal lever inside the LKY-era bundle.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS@2026-04-30T114720Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS@2026-04-30T114943Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS@2026-04-30T140120Z.parquet
  • fraser_efw:summary_index -> data/vintages/fraser_efw/summary_index@2026-05-02T220000Z.parquet
  • fraser_efw:freedom_to_trade_internationally -> data/vintages/fraser_efw/freedom_to_trade_internationally@2026-05-02T220000Z.parquet

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/singapore_lky_low_tax_high_savings_market_rules_1970_1990.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Designed to separate tax/spending footprint from compulsory-saving and housing architecture caveats.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.