IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024

Singapore's post-LKY institutional legacy is visible in WGI data: control of corruption, government effectiveness, and rule of law remain near the top of the regional peer set from 1996 to 2024.

This is a legacy pattern, not a direct causal test of Lee Kuan Yew's premiership.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024

SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 1996 to 2024.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1996 to 2024, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Control of corruption
  • Basic government quality
  • Rule of law
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024
1007550250199620102024SGPHKGKORMYSTHAIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show control_of_corruption across 7 sampled countries over 1996–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Singapore's post-LKY institutional legacy is visible in WGI data: control of corruption, government effectiveness, and rule of law remain near the top of the regional peer set from 1996 to 2024. This is a legacy pattern, not a direct causal test of Lee Kuan Yew's premiership.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds. REFUTED if at most 1 metrics meet after available data are evaluated. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024_local_multimetric_checklist
threshold: MET >= 3 of 4; REFUTE when MET <= 1

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
7 countries · 1996 – 2024
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Custom Lee Kuan Yew / Singapore checklist using local WDI, WGI, PWT, and Fraser EFW vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
control_of_corruption
outcome
wgi:CC.ESTtier 4
annual_mean
government_effectiveness
outcome
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
annual_mean
rule_of_law
outcome
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
annual_mean

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's post-LKY institutional legacy is visible in WGI data: control of corruption, government effectiveness, and rule of law remain near the top of the regional peer set from 1996 to 2024. This is a legacy pattern, not a direct causal test of Lee Kuan Yew's premiership.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics meet their thresholds; REFUTED if at most 1 meet after available data are evaluated.
  • Falsification test: singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024_local_multimetric_checklist

Metric Results

| metric | observed | threshold | status | note | |---|---:|---|---|---| | control_corruption_mean | 2.062 | >= 1.75 | MET | SGP WGI CC mean = 2.062; threshold >= 1.75 | | government_effectiveness_mean | 2.211 | >= 2.00 | MET | SGP WGI GE mean = 2.211; threshold >= 2 | | rule_of_law_mean | 1.464 | >= 1.25 | MET | SGP WGI RL mean = 1.464; threshold >= 1.25 | | corruption_control_peer_gap_2024 | 1.983 | >= 1.0 point above peer median | MET | SGP 2024 CC minus peer median = 1.983; threshold >= 1 |

Interpretation

This is a pre-registered descriptive checklist over local vintages. It grades whether the observed Singapore pattern clears the stated thresholds; it does not identify a single causal lever inside the LKY-era bundle.

Sources

  • wgi:CC.EST -> data/vintages/wgi/CC.EST@2026-04-30T114239Z.parquet
  • wgi:GE.EST -> data/vintages/wgi/GE.EST@2026-04-30T114242Z.parquet
  • wgi:RL.EST -> data/vintages/wgi/RL.EST@2026-04-30T114245Z.parquet

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/singapore_lky_rule_of_law_government_effectiveness_legacy_1996_2024.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Legacy pattern only; direct LKY-era corruption data remains a data need.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.