IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990

The LKY-era Singapore model was extraordinarily trade-open rather than autarkic: trade and exports were far above GDP, trade openness beat regional peers, and manufactured exports became a dominant share by 1990.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990

SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1965 to 1990, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness
  • Exports pct income
  • Manufactured exports share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: partial provenance.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990
1007550250196519781990SGPHKGKORMYSTHAIDNPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness across 7 sampled countries over 1965–1990.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

The LKY-era Singapore model was extraordinarily trade-open rather than autarkic: trade and exports were far above GDP, trade openness beat regional peers, and manufactured exports became a dominant share by 1990.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds. REFUTED if at most 1 metrics meet after available data are evaluated. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990_local_multimetric_checklist
threshold: MET >= 3 of 4; REFUTE when MET <= 1

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
7 countries · 1965 – 1990
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Custom Lee Kuan Yew / Singapore checklist using local WDI, WGI, PWT, and Fraser EFW vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
annual_mean
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
annual_mean
manufactured_exports_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UNtier 2
endpoint_change

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The LKY-era Singapore model was extraordinarily trade-open rather than autarkic: trade and exports were far above GDP, trade openness beat regional peers, and manufactured exports became a dominant share by 1990.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics meet their thresholds; REFUTED if at most 1 meet after available data are evaluated.
  • Falsification test: singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990_local_multimetric_checklist

Metric Results

| metric | observed | threshold | status | note | |---|---:|---|---|---| | trade_openness_mean | 308.778 | >= 250% of GDP | MET | SGP trade/GDP mean = 308.778; threshold >= 250 | | exports_share_mean | 152.044 | >= 120% of GDP | MET | SGP exports/GDP mean = 152.044; threshold >= 120 | | trade_vs_peer_median_1990 | 5.352 | >= 2.0x peer median | MET | SGP 1990 trade/GDP / peer median = 5.352; threshold >= 2 | | manufactured_exports_upgrade | 40.783 | >= 30pp increase | MET | SGP manufactured-export share change = 40.783; threshold >= 30 |

Interpretation

This is a pre-registered descriptive checklist over local vintages. It grades whether the observed Singapore pattern clears the stated thresholds; it does not identify a single causal lever inside the LKY-era bundle.

Sources

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS@2026-04-30T135618Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS@2026-04-30T130354Z.parquet
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN -> data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN@2026-04-30T115209Z.parquet

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/singapore_lky_trade_openness_port_state_1965_1990.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Port-state accounting is a central caveat; result card reports the descriptive pattern only.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.