IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_combo

Singapore's long-run prosperity and frontier convergence are better predicted by extreme trade openness, strong rule of law, competitive product and services markets, and high economic freedom than by state ownership or industrial targeting alone.

While state capacity (Temasek holdings, sovereign wealth funds, EDB coordination) contributed to stability and infrastructure, the marginal contribution of market openness and legal institutions to total factor productivity growth exceeds that of state ownership intensity over 1965-2020, after controlling for initial income, human capital, and geography.

PARTIALengine/runs/singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_combo

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0001143, p=0.713 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.0001143, p=0.713 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1965 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade openness
  • Rule of law
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Income per capita convergence gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 1 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_combo
1007550250196519932020SGPHKGKORTWNMYSTHACHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 11 sampled countries over 1965–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_combo. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_combo/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:01Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Singapore's long-run prosperity and frontier convergence are better predicted by extreme trade openness, strong rule of law, competitive product and services markets, and high economic freedom than by state ownership or industrial targeting alone. While state capacity (Temasek holdings, sovereign wealth funds, EDB coordination) contributed to stability and infrastructure, the marginal contribution of market openness and legal institutions to total factor productivity growth exceeds that of state ownership intensity over 1965-2020, after controlling for initial income, human capital, and geography.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the state_ownership_intensity coefficient is positive and larger than the trade_openness or rule_of_law coefficients in explaining TFP growth or convergence, or if trade_openness and rule_of_law are not positive and significant (p < 0.10) predictors of Singapore's performance.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_singapore_openness_vs_state_ownership_1965_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1965 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel fixed-effects comparing relative coefficients of openness/rule-of-law versus state ownership.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap
outcome
pwt:rgdpetier 3
constructed_gap_to_usa
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
state_ownership_intensity
treatment
constructed:temasek_plus_gic_assets_to_gdptier 5
level
economic_freedom_score
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
fdi_inflows_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
population_size
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_combo

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.0001143, p=0.713 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's long-run prosperity and frontier convergence are better predicted by extreme trade openness, strong rule of law, competitive product and services markets, and high economic freedom than by state ownership or industrial targeting alone. While state capacity (Temasek holdings, sovereign wealth funds, EDB coordination) contributed to stability and infrastructure, the marginal contribution of market openness and legal institutions to total factor productivity growth exceeds that of state ownership intensity over 1965-2020, after controlling for initial income, human capital, and geography.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the state_ownership_intensity coefficient is positive and larger than the trade_openness or rule_of_law coefficients in explaining TFP growth or convergence, or if trade_openness and rule_of_law are not positive and significant (p < 0.10) predictors of Singapore's performance.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_singapore_openness_vs_state_ownership_1965_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.0001143
  • Std error: 0.0003099
  • p-value: 0.713
  • Observations: 294, countries: 7
  • Within R²: 0.68
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpe → gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → economic_freedom_score (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → population_size (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:temasek_plus_gic_assets_to_gdp (treatment, name=state_ownership_intensity) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Singapore's small size and strategic port location are strong confounders. The inclusion of Hong Kong and Luxembourg helps difference out city-state geography effects.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.