Pre-registration
Collectivised agriculture in the USSR 1930-1940 raised grain marketings sufficiently to finance industrial investment, delivering Preobrazhensky's scissors-crisis resolution despite high rural transition costs.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
formal test & threshold
test: Descriptive USSR time series 1928-1940 of grain marketings index and industrial output index (Davies-Wheatcroft); falsified if marketings/grain-output ratio not at least 30% above 1928 baseline by 1933.
Method
- Template
descriptive- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 1928 – 1940
- Evidence type
- descriptive
Single-country USSR descriptive trajectory of grain marketings, procurements, and rural-to-urban resource transfer 1930-1940. Reports cumulative magnitude versus pre-collectivisation 1928 baseline. No causal counterfactual; tests whether the Preobrazhensky-style scissors-crisis resolution is observed in marketings data.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
log_real_gdp_long_run outcome | maddison:gdp_ppptier 3 | log |
log_gdp_pc_long_run outcome | maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3 | log |
grain_production_index outcome | faostat:production_graintier 2 | log |
industrial_output_index outcome | manual:davies_wheatcroft_soviet_industrial_outputtier 4 | log |
log_population control | world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2 | log |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — soviet_collectivisation_agricultural_marketings
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — falsification rule not sharpened — auto-grader refuses to grade against the generic stub boilerplate. Promote the spec (replace falsification.rule with a dispositive threshold AND document the sharpening in methodology_note) before running.
Pre-registration
- Claim: Collectivised agriculture in the USSR 1930-1940 raised grain marketings sufficiently to finance industrial investment, delivering Preobrazhensky's scissors-crisis resolution despite high rural transition costs.
- Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
- Falsification test: Descriptive USSR time series 1928-1940 of grain marketings index and industrial output index (Davies-Wheatcroft); falsified if marketings/grain-output ratio not at least 30% above 1928 baseline by 1933.
Comparison
- Error: falsification rule not sharpened — auto-grader refuses to grade against the generic stub boilerplate. Promote the spec (replace falsification.rule with a dispositive threshold AND document the sharpening in methodology_note) before running.
Variables resolved
Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-04T13:02:35+00:00
Notes
Seeded from a Marxist-Leninist (Preobrazhensky scissors-crisis) claim that 1930-40 collectivisation successfully extracted agricultural surplus for industrial investment despite rural costs. Descriptive series; data quality (Davies-Wheatcroft reconstructions) requires human review.