IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience

Spain absorbed the 2021-2023 inflation shock with improving unemployment and GDP above its pre-COVID level by late 2023.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether post covid energy inflation window is actually linked to better or worse cpi yoy from 2021 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2021 to 2023, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post covid energy inflation window
What we checked
  • Cpi yoy
  • Unemployment rate
  • Income volume index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience
1007550250202120222023ESP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_yoy across 1 sampled countries over 2021–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Social Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Spain absorbed the 2021-2023 inflation shock with improving unemployment and GDP above its pre-COVID level by late 2023.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 2 of 3 metrics pass: peak CPI inflation exceeds 8 percent in 2022, unemployment falls by more than 1pp from 2021Q4 to 2023Q3, and GDP is more than 5 percent above 2019Q4 by 2023Q4. REFUTED if 1 or fewer pass.

formal test & threshold
test:      spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience_window
threshold: SUPPORTED if >= 2 metrics pass; REFUTED if <= 1 pass.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2021 – 2023
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Compact national event-window replication from cached ONS/INE/BCRA vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_yoy
outcome
ine:IPC_generaltier 2
monthly yoy percent
unemployment_rate
outcome
ine:EPA_PAROtier 2
quarterly percent
gdp_volume_index
outcome
ine:CNTR_PIBtier 2
quarterly volume index
post_covid_energy_inflation_window
treatment
constructed:2021-2023 inflation shocktier 5
event indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - spain_2021_2023_inflation_unemployment_resilience

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 3/3 metrics passed (support >= 2; refute <= 1).

Claim

Spain absorbed the 2021-2023 inflation shock with improving unemployment and GDP above its pre-COVID level by late 2023.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | Threshold | Pass | Details | |---|---:|---|:---:|---| | inflation_shock_large | 10.800 | peak yoy CPI >8% | yes | peak 10.8% | | unemployment_improved_through_shock | 1.890 | >1pp fall 2021Q4 to 2023Q3 | yes | 13.65% to 11.76% | | gdp_above_pre_shock | 10.051 | >5% above 2019Q4 | yes | 102.4 to 112.7 |

Interpretation

This is a compact predeclared event-window verdict using local cached national-statistics vintages. It is strong for timing and magnitude, but not a full causal structural decomposition.

Provenance

See manifest.yaml for exact vintage files and SHA-256 hashes. Re-run with replication.py.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by scripts/generate_national_event_wave.py from local cached vintages; no network fetch required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.