IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel

Higher state-imposed trade barriers predict weaker household consumption growth and narrower imported product variety in country-year panels.

The market mechanism is that lower barriers expand consumer and producer choice through price competition and input access; the protectionist state-control counterclaim is that restricting imports preserves domestic production without material consumer-welfare costs.

PARTIALengine/runs/state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel

PARTIAL — coef=+0.0007921, p=0.549 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.0007921, p=0.549 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 41 country or place units from 1988 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Applied tariff rate
  • Import product concentration
What we checked
  • Real household consumption per capita growth
  • Import hs6 product lines
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel
1007550250198820062023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_household_consumption_per_capita_growth across 41 sampled countries over 1988–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:41Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher state-imposed trade barriers predict weaker household consumption growth and narrower imported product variety in country-year panels. The market mechanism is that lower barriers expand consumer and producer choice through price competition and input access; the protectionist state-control counterclaim is that restricting imports preserves domestic production without material consumer-welfare costs.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if applied_tariff_rate is negative for real household consumption per-capita growth at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if applied_tariff_rate is positive at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE depending on coverage.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
41 countries · 1988 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Primary test estimates consumption-growth response to applied tariffs with country and year fixed effects. Product-line variety is reported as a mechanism check rather than a dispositive second hurdle.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_household_consumption_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD.ZGtier 2
level
import_hs6_product_lines
outcome
wits:product_linestier 2
log
applied_tariff_rate
treatment
wits:tariff_averagetier 2
level
import_product_concentration
treatment
wits:import_concentrationtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
real_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
inflation
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.0007921, p=0.549 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher state-imposed trade barriers predict weaker household consumption growth and narrower imported product variety in country-year panels. The market mechanism is that lower barriers expand consumer and producer choice through price competition and input access; the protectionist state-control counterclaim is that restricting imports preserves domestic production without material consumer-welfare costs.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if applied_tariff_rate is negative for real household consumption per-capita growth at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if applied_tariff_rate is positive at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE depending on coverage.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_state_trade_barriers_consumption_variety_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.0007921
  • Std error: 0.001322
  • p-value: 0.549
  • Observations: 723, countries: 33
  • Within R²: -0.224
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • wits:product_lines → import_hs6_product_lines (outcome, publisher=wits, n=5357)
  • wits:tariff_average → applied_tariff_rate (treatment, publisher=wits, n=3806)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD.ZG (outcome, name=real_household_consumption_per_capita_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • wits:import_concentration (treatment, name=import_product_concentration) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:41+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Uses WITS tariff/product panels and WDI macro outcomes so the first pass should be runnable with existing fetchers.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.